New rule changes in clock management intended to shorten games have angered many college coaches and will definitely affect point totals, spreads and game outcomes. ESPN and USA Today report that numerous coaches have expressed outrage over the alterations that now start the clock sooner.
Oregon coach Mike Bellotti told USA Today, “I am appalled at the rule changes. They are major and very severe and will change the game as we know it.”
The changes involve starting the clock on a free kick when the kicker’s foot touches the ball, rather than when the receiver touches it as in past years, and starting the clock after a first down when the referee signals the ball in play, rather than when the ball is snapped.
It’s estimated that these two rule changes could shorten games an average of 5 minutes. That could mean 10 to 15 fewer plays per game. By my estimate, that could lower point totals by as much as 21, depending on the game, and spreads by as much as 14!
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier told USA Today. “If you’re the underdog, obviously you would like fewer plays in the game.” Spurrier feels the rule changes benefit those teams.
Coach Joe Paterno added insight by observing that starting the clock when the ball is kicked means that if you “kick it out of bounds with 8-10 seconds to go, the game’s over.”
A major question for those putting money on these games, especially those contests that are currently handicapped, is have handicappers taken this effect into consideration? Additionally, how will it influence handicapping throughout the season? There is the theory of what it will do and then there’s the reality— how will these be reconciled?
A few things to consider when wagering include the fact that running games suffer most from the rule changes, innovative coaches will probably come up with ways to beat these alterations (like no huddle offenses, quick snaps, etc) and teams with tough defenses will benefit greatly. Oh, yeah, and that punter could make a game-winning play by simply getting that ball high enough in the air.
One thing is for certain, it should make this season’s college football betting landscape very interesting.
Technorati Tags: NCAA Football, NCAA Football rule changes, Steve Spurrier, Mike Bellotti, Joe Paterno
