Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic
Time: 7:05 PM EST Jan 14
TV: League Pass
Spread: HOU -9
Total: 199

Odds c/o Bovada

The Orlando Magic are coming off a big 121-114 win over the Chicago Bulls Monday night and will turn its attention to a tough Western Conference contender in Kevin McHale’s Houston Rockets. The Rockets currently sit at No. 3 in the West and are 14-5 on the road this season.

Orlando has struggled to defend its homecourt, having won just 4 of 16 contests at the Amway arena. NBA odds as of early afternoon showed the Rockets as 9-point favorites in the contest.

The Rockets have a plus-4.9 point differential and 6-4 over the last 10 games. Houston made a big splash signing the waived Josh Smith, but it has yet to pay major dividends. Smith has helped his teammates cash in on some highlights, but can he do more? He’s only appeared in 11 games and started in just four of those, but he’s as inefficient as ever, posting a 10.8 PER in his stint thus far with Houston.

The worst part is that this offense is going to encourage Smith to hoist more threes, and he is hardly a marksman, hitting just 22.7 percent this year on two attempts per game. He also is just 42.9 percent from the field, largely the result of settling for too many jumpers. That has always been the knock on Josh Smith, because there is no denying his defensive talent.

And again, that is talent, because the effort just isn’t there like it used to be. He is still good for a block and a steal a game, but at one time was a feared rim protector. The Rockets could certainly use more of that to further complement the defensive skills of Dwight Howard. The Rockets are already 3rd in defensive rating and play the 8th fastest pace in the NBA.

James Harden has been dominant once again this season and is solidifying his place as arguably the best 2-guard in the league today. He’s averaging 26.9 points, 6.6 assists and 5.7 rebounds a game. Harden has also been able to contribute more defensively with the addition of Trevor Ariza. Between Ariza and point guard Patrick Beverley, it has allowed Harden to gamble more and he is averaging 2.7 blocks/steals per game.

Ariza’s play has more than made up for the departure of Chandler Parsons, but the loss of Omer Asik could hurt the Rockets in the postseason. His depth behind Howard and what has become Josh Smith would have been vital against teams like the Portland Trail Blazers, who eliminated the Rox last season due to the dominance of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge.

Tonight, the Magic pose no such threats. Power forward Kyle O’Quinn is not talented offensively enough to batter the Rockets, notwithstanding that O’Quinn has had some nice scoring games this season. Where the real battle will be is in the paint between Nikola Vucevic and Dwight Howard. Vucevic essentially became the new face of the franchise in the departure of Howard and was an acquisition of the three team deal that shipped Howard to L.A.

At this point, the argument is being made that Vucevic is a top-5 NBA center, and that is likely not too far off the mark. His play in the win over the Bulls was nothing short of brilliant, and his touch around the basket is impeccable. In the win over Chicago, scoring 33 points on 16 of 24 shooting while snatching down 16 rebounds, including eight on the offensive end, which helped Vucevic pass Tracy McGrady for 8th on the Magic’s all-time offensive rebounding list.

Vucevic has recorded a double-double in the last five Magic games, and his defensive effort has been vastly improved over the last two contests since melting down against the L.A. Lakers on Jan 9 (The Magic lost by 17 to the Lakers playing without Kobe Bryant).

The Magic still are coming off having lost six of its past seven games, but the turnaround seemingly happened Monday against Chicago, so it will be interesting to see if the Magic can stick with Houston. The pace in the Bulls’ contest was significantly faster than the Magic typically play at, and it worked well. Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo pushed the pace, even running out after made Bulls’ baskets. The new identity could help carve the Magic, whose greatest value at this point lies in the perimeter defensive skills of its young talent.