Dallas at Sacramento
Time: 10 PM EST
TV: CSN Bay Area, League Pass
Spread: DAL -5.5
M/L: DAL -225; SAC +185
Total: 214
Betting odds courtesy of Bovada
The Dallas Mavericks are 26-12 and currently situated 5th in the Western Conference, five games back from Conference-leading Golden State. Dallas has made moves to fortify its team both over the offseason and with the in-season acquisition of Rajon Rondo.
The Mavs have lost its last two games and will try to avoid a three-game skid tonight as it plays in Sacramento.
Dallas lost its last two contests to the Detroit Pistons on Wed (Jan 7) and the L.A. Clippers Saturday night (Jan 10). Neither game was particularly close, with the Mavs losing by 13 to the Pistons and 20 to the Clips. Rondo has been eased into the situation, and he’s averaging just 31.7 minutes per game over his first 11 contests as a Maverick. That figure may or may not inflate, given that no one on the Mavs plays more than Monta Ellis’ 34 minutes a game. Rondo has averaged 11.1 points and 8.2 assists per game, but both figures are almost certainly due to increase.
Together with Ellis, Rondo forms what should be one of the quickest backcourts in the league. Both excel at playing passing lanes, too, combing for over 3.3 steals per game.
That’ll help the high scoring Mavs continue to get out in transition, to aid the finishing abilities of Chandler Parsons and Brendan Wright. In the half court, Dirk Nowitzki is still devastating, though his production is beginning to fall off, as are his minutes.
Dirk is playing under 30 minutes per game this season while averaging 18.6 points and just 5.9 rebounds a game, but he still has a top PER at his position due to his complete unblockability and guile. He’s going to be there at the end of the game to help Ellis close it out, and the Mavs have the tools to be legitimate contenders in the West, the struggles of the last two games notwithstanding.
Eventually, the pure talent of this team is going to propel it to a high seed in the postseason, barring major injury. Tyson Chandler has fortified what was a weak defense last season, and having Rondo head the snake should help further. Though the Mavs still rank 23rd in points allowed, the differential is positive-6.3 points due to the breakneck pace the Mavericks play at.
Sacramento is vastly improved, but still just 16-21 on the season. One would figure that a team this strong could fare well in the Eastern Conference, but that just isn’t how it shakes out for Sacto. DeMarcus Cousins has continued to take steps forward in his game and is posting 23.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, three assists and 3.04 blocks/steals per game. His turnovers remain high at 3.9, but the Kings have kept the team turnovers to a manageable 15.5 per game.
Rudy Gay has been consistent and the typical 20 point per game scorer he’s been over his career, and Darren Collison has cashed in on the potential he’d shown behind Chris Paul in both New Orleans and Los Angeles. Collison is averaging 16 points and six assists per game, while also coming up with 1.6 steals per contest.
Second-year guard Ben McLemore is beginning to break-through and is averaging 11.8 points per game while hitting 37 percent from three ona team-high 4.5 attempts per game. The Kings go deep into its bench with 12 players all receiving playing time, down to Nik Stauskas’ 12 minutes per game.
The Kings also have familiar faces Carl Landry and Omri Casspi in the fold, and each average about eight points per game, for an offense that is good for 102 per contest. Casspi has missed the last five games with a left knee contusion and is not expected to be in the fold tonight either.
The Kings are a dangerous team given the depth of scoring options and can be a threat to any given team on any night, even the Mavs tonight.
As interesting as the notion sounds, bettors should not count out a moneyline bet on the Kings at +185. The Kings are playing well and coming off wins against Oklahoma City on Jan 7 and last game Sunday over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Jan 11). The Kings are inconsistent, but Dallas is still finding its way with Rondo in the fold and it seems that Cousins and company could sneak one out at home.
