Miami at Denver
Time: WED, 10:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: DEN -6
Total: 203
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Miami Heat were not expected to be contenders after losing three-time MVP LeBron James. But that isn’t to say the team is a pushover by any means. The Heat have struggled at home, but have posted a 6-5 road record while going 3-4 against Western Conference teams.
Tonight, the Heat face a west team in Denver, and the Nuggets are six-point favorites at home. The total in NBA odds is set at 203 points.
Much like over the past four seasons, Miami’s biggest problem has been being competitive on the glass. The Heat rank third-to-last in the NBA with just 35.1 rebounds per game, and the Heat have struggled to score, averaging just 95.4 points per game.
Chris Bosh, for his part, has re-emerged as a threat rebounding the basketball. He’s also elevated his offensive status to what it was during his tenure as a Toronto Raptor early in his career. Bosh is averaging 21.9 points and 8.4 boards per game while posting a 22.8 PER, second to only Dwyane Wade among Heat players.
Wade has taken a much more active role in the offense sans LBJ, looking to make more plays, which has led to the increase in his assist numbers (5.9 this season). Given that the Heat have always looked to make plays aside from the 1-spot, this really isn’t a surprise.
Wade is not expected to play due to a headache, but it seems unlikely that would actually keep him sidelined. His status obviously plays a crucial role in bettor’s decisions for this game, and with Josh McRoberts and Chris Andersen both on the shelf, the rebounding problems should continue to worsen still.
The Nuggets, much like last season, are battling major injury problems. JaVale McGee has missed the last two games with a tibia injury and power forward Kenneth Faried has missed the last two games with a back injury. Faried is questionable to play while McGee will be out certainly.
One-time Knick Danilo Gallinari is out once again, after playing just 17 minute a game in his 21 games thus far this season.
With all the injuries, it’s almost surprising the beat up Nuggets are 9-12, even.
Ty Lawson has continued to show he was not worthy of his massive contract extension, while no other Nugget is averaging over 15 points per game to aid Lawson offensively. Even so, the former UNC Tar Heel is putting up 10.4 assists per game for the Nuggets who average 103.5 points per game. Lawson is still woeful from the field, shooting just 40.9 percent from the floor and 26.6 percent from behind the arc.
The Nuggets shoot only 43.8 percent as a team, however, while connecting on a marginal 32 percent from three. Lawson, center Timofey Mosgov and Faried are the only players seeing significant minutes that are above a league average PER, and the latter of that trio barely eclipses the mark. The Nuggets will continue to be a bottom-tier team in the West barring a much better bill of health and the return to relevance of the once brilliant Gallinari. Expect the Nuggets to be able to handle Miami on its homecourt, particularly if the status of Wade is indeed correct.
