New York Jets at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, Massachusetts
Thursday, October 16, 2014, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS/NFL Network
Opening Line: New England -9
Current Line: New England -10
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: Patriots -450 / Jets +355
Current Money Line: Patriots -485 / Jets +385
Three weeks ago the New England Patriots were 2-2 after being routed on Monday Night Football by the Kansas City Chiefs. Many thought it was sign that the Patriots 15 season run of being an elite NFL team might be coming to an end. Convincing wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills have eased some of those doubts, but the Patriots still have a long way to go. New England hosts the rival New York Jets Thursday night. The Jets are 1-5 and have lost 5 straight games after a season opening win over the still winless Oakland Raiders.
Since 2001, New England leads the series against New York 20-8. The Patriots have won 5 of the last 6 against the Jets since New York upset New England in the 2011 AFC Divisional playoffs. The jets won the last meeting at home last October 30-27 to snap a 5 game losing streak to the Patriots. New England won the last meeting in Foxboro 13-10 last September. New England makes the return trip to New Jersey December 21.
New York is coached by Rex Ryan. The Jets beat the Raiders 19-14. Since then they have home losses to the Chicago Bears 27-19, Detroit Lions 24-17, and last week against the Denver Broncos 31-17. The Jets have road losses at the Green Bay Packers 31-24 and San Diego Chargers 31-0. New York is 0-5-1 ATS and the total was 3-3. The Jets were 10 point underdogs against the Broncos and the total was 47. Jets’ bettors were dismayed when a late pick six with 15 seconds left enabled the Broncos to cover and also sent the game over the total.
New England is coached by Bill Belichick. The Patriots have losses at the Miami Dolphins 33-20 and the Chiefs 41-14. New England has home wins over the Raiders 16-9 and the Bengals 43-17. The Patriots have road wins at the Minnesota Vikings 30-7 and last week at the Bills 37-22. The win improved New England to 4-2 with a one game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East. The Patriots were one point favorites against the Bills and the total was 44. New England is 3-3 ATS and the total is 4-2.
New York is being outscored 26-16 this season. The Jets are #30 in scoring and #25 in points allowed. The Jets are averaging 303 yards per game including 182 passing and 151 rushing yards per game. New York is #30 in total offense and last in passing. On defense, New York is giving up 327 yards per game including 235 passing and 92 rushing yards. The Jets are #6 in total defense and #8 in rush defense. New York is 35/91 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/90. The Jets have forced 19 sacks and allowed 15 this season. The Jets are -9 in turnovers. New York has allowed two defensive touchdowns this season.
New York quarterback Geno Smith has completed 57.1% of his passes for 1,139 yards with 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 27 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t been terrible but inconsistent enough for some Jets fans to call for his benching in favor of Mike Vick. Running back Chris Ivory has 67 carries for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 85 yards. Chris Johnson has 51 carries for 200 yards and a touchdown, plus 10 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Eric Decker has 20 catches for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jeremy Kerley has 20 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jace Amaro has 24 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. Five defensive players are listed as questionable or out for the Jets.
New England is outscoring teams 27-22. The Patriots are #11 in both scoring and points allowed. New England is averaging 349 yards per game on offense including 239 passing yards and 110 rushing yards. On defense, New England is allowing 320 yards per game including 209 passing and 111 rushing yards. The Patriots are #3 in total defense and #5 in pass defense. New England is 37/96 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 32/75. The Patriots have forced 15 sacks and allowed 3 this season. New England is +9 in turnovers. The Patriots have two defensive scores and have allowed one this season.
Quarterback Tom Brady has completed 62.7% of his passes for 1,444 yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is probable with an ankle injury. If Brady somehow can’t go, then rookie Jimmy Garoppolo will start. He looked decent in garbage time of the KC blowout. Running back Stevan Ridley is out for the season with a knee injury. He had 94 carries for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 4 catches. Shane Vereen takes over as the feature back. He has 42 carries for 216 yards and a touchdown, along with 18 catches for 114 yards. Brandon Bolden will get more carries without Ridley. Receiver Julian Edelman has 40 catches for 409 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 carries for 45 yards . Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 26 catches for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns. Brandon LeFell has 15 catches for 282 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tim Right has 10 catches for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report.
New York is 4-0 ATS in week 7 games, 4-1 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 3-7 against AFC teams, 3-8 after allowing 30 points or more, 1-3-1 against teams with winning records, 1-4-1 against teams with winning home records, 1-4 in October, 1-4-2 in road games, 1-5-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 0-5 after a straight up loss, 0-4-1 after failing to cover, 0-5-1 overall, and 0-4 on fieldturf. The underdog and road team are both 4-1 ATS in this series recently.
New England is 5-1 ATS on fieldturf, 8-2 at home, 6-2-1 in Week 7, 70-31-2 after gaining 350 total yards or more, 33-16-2 in October, 3-7 after a straight up win, 9-23 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 3-8 after scoring more than 30 points, 4-12 after passing for 250 yards or more, 1-4 against teams with losing records, and 1-7 after allowing more than 250 passing yards. The over is 8-1-1 ATS in this series overall and 5-1-1 in Foxboro.
New York isn’t as terrible as their record would indicate. They have played a very tough schedule with 5 teams that are playoff contenders. Apart from a 31-0 blowout loss at the Chargers, the Jets have been competitive in every game. By contrast, New England has struggled on offense, until the last 2 games. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots’ offense performs without leading rusher Ridley. Heavy rains are predicted for Foxboro tonight. I think it all adds up to the Jets hanging around and staying within the huge number.
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