NBA Western Conference Picks: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Saturday, April 12, 2014, 8:35 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Opening Line: Dallas -3 1/2
Current Line: Dallas -3 1/2
Opening Total: 209 1/2
Current Total: 209 1/2
Opening Money Line: Mavericks -150 / Suns +130
Current Money Line: Mavericks -175 / Suns +155

Dallas is a 3.5 point home favorite against Phoenix in a crucial Western Conference battle with playoff implications for both teams.

Last night, the Golden State Warriors clinched one of the three remaining playoff spots in the Western Conference. That leaves the Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies to battle for the last two spots. The 48-32 Mavericks lead the 47-32 Grizzlies and Suns by a half game. Memphis holds the tiebreaker over Phoenix for the #8 seed.

The way the schedule works out all three teams will play each other in the handful of games left in the regular season. It starts tonight as Phoenix visits Dallas in a crucial contest for both teams. The Grizzlies are off tonight, but travel to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday. Phoenix hosts Memphis Monday night. Dallas travels to Memphis Wednesday night to close out the regular season.

The two teams split the two previous meetings this season, both in Phoenix. The Suns won 123-108 December 21. The Mavericks returned the favor 110-107 January 17. A Dallas win tonight would put them in the driver’s seat, as they would lead the Suns by a game and a half and the Grizzlies by a game. Dallas would only have one game remaining. A Phoenix win tonight would give them a half game lead over both Dallas and Memphis. The winner tonight also gains the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Phoenix is coached by Jeff Hornacek, a contender for coach of the year. The Suns have gone 9-3 in their last 11 games. Phoenix lost in San Antonio last night against the Spurs 112-104 to snap a 3 game winning streak for the Suns. Phoenix led by as many as 21 in the second quarter. The suns were playing without leading scorer Goran Dragic who missed the game with an ankle injury. San Antonio clinched the best record in the league despite being without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli. Phoenix is 50-28-1 ATS and the total is 39-37-3 this season.

Phoenix is outscoring teams 106-103 this season. The Suns are #6 in scoring and #22 in points allowed. Phoenix is shooting 46.35 from the field and 37.4% from 3 point range. The Suns are #7 in field goal percentage and #6 in 3 point shooting. Phoenix makes 75.8% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 45.5% from the field and 33.8% from 3 point range. The Suns are #2 in 3 point defense. Phoenix averages 43.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.7 per game. The Suns average 19.2 assists, 15.4 turnovers, 8.3 steals and 4.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.3 assists, 15.3 turnovers, 7.4 steals, and 4.1 blocks per game.

Guard Goran Dragic averages 20.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. He rolled his ankle Wednesday night, but is expected to play tonight. Guard Eric Bledsoe averages 17.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Guard Gerald Green averages 15.9 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Forward Markieff Morris averages 13.6 points, 6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Forward Channing Frye averages 11 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Marcus Morris, P.J. Tucker, Miles Plumlee, Ish Smith and Archie Goodwin will also get significant minutes. Guard Leandro Barbosa is out indefinitely with a broken hand. Center Emeka Okafor is out for the season with a neck injury.

Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. The Mavericks lost at home to the Spurs 109-100 Thursday. The loss snapped a 4 game winning streak for Dallas. The Mavericks are 43-37 ATS and the total is 44-36 this season.

Dallas is outscoring teams 105-102 this season. The Mavericks are #8 in scoring and #20 in points allowed. Dallas is shooting 47.4% from the field and 38.5% from 3 point range. The Mavericks are #5 in field goal shooting and #2 in 3 point shooting. Dallas is #3 in free throw shooting at 79.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 46.4% from the field and 35.7% from 3 point range. Dallas averages 40.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.7 per game. The Mavericks are #26 in rebounds. Dallas averages 23.7 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game. Opponents average 22.1 assists, 16 turnovers, 7.6 steals and 3.6 blocks per game.

Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 21.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Earlier this week, he passed Oscar Robertson to become the 10th leading scorer in NBA history. Guard Monta Ellis averages 18.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Vince Carter averages 12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Guard Jose Calderon averages 11.6 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. Forward Shawn Marion averages 10.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Brandan Wright, Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert, DeJuan Blair and Jae Crowder will also get significant minutes.

Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in Saturday games, 6-2 after a straight up loss, 23-8 after failing to cover, 20-8 against teams with winning home records, 7-3 against teams with winning records, 14-6 in road games, 9-4 in back-to-backs, 2-7 against Southwest Division teams, and 1-4 when the starters combine for 160 minutes or more in the previous game. Four of the last five games overall in this series have gone over the total. However, the under is 7-1 in the last 8 games in Dallas in this series.

Dallas is 4-0 ATS after the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, 39-13 after a straight up loss, 47-18 after failing to cover, 3-7 against teams with winning road records, 2-5 against teams with winning records, 2-6 against Pacific Division teams, and 0-4 at home. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games in this series. The Mavericks are 12-3 ATS against the Suns in the last 15, including 6-1 in Dallas.

The loser of this game will be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league so this should be a high scoring affair. Phoenix has a big edge in rebounding. The Mavericks have struggled at home recently losing 3 of their last 4 in Dallas. Still, I think they right the ship and take the much needed win.

Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. The Mavericks have won four straight games, all on the road. Dallas won at the Utah Jazz 95-83 Tuesday night. After the Spurs, Dallas hosts Phoenix and travels to Memphis to close out the regular season. The Mavericks are 43-36 ATS and the total is also 43-36 this season.

Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 21.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. On Tuesday he passed Oscar Robertson to become the 10th leading scorer in NBA history. Guard Monta Ellis averages 18.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Vince Carter averages 12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Guard Jose Calderon averages 11.6 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. Forward Shawn Marion averages 10.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He is probable with a foot injury. Brandan Wright, Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert, DeJuan Blair and Jae Crowder will also get significant minutes.

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