Houston at Dallas
Time: 8:30 PM ET, Jan 29, 2014
Spread: DAL -3.5
M/L: DAL -165; HOU +145
Total: 211
Betting odds courtesy of 5dimes
The Dallas Mavericks are clinging to the eighth spot in the Western Conference and sit at 26-20 entering tonight’s contest against the Houston Rockets. NBA oddsmakers at 5dimes favor the home team Mavericks by 3.5-points.
Dallas is coming off a 116-106 victory over the Detroit Pistons. Dirk Nowitzki scored 28 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the win. Dirk is seeing just 32 minutes a night this season but still leads the Mavs in scoring with 21.2 points per game. Nowitzki’s PER is still 23.3, which is superb as well.
Dirk’s scoring is augmented by the play of gunner Monta Ellis. Ellis came via free agency and played in Milwaukee last season. He’s averaging 19.7 points and 5.9 assists per game.
The Mavs also have a cast of spare parts that have come together nicely: Jose Calderon is hitting the open threes; Vince Carter is aggressively seeking his shot; and Shawn Marion is still a top flight perimeter defender. The Mavs could benefit from another big body inside and should reasonably consider trading for the Rockets’ Omer Asik.
Houston is seated fifth in the West at 30-17 and won 97-90 over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night (Jan 28). Dwight Howard had 23 points and 16 boards and Jeremy Lin dished out eight assists. James Harden sat out with a sore thumb, and the Rockets went small with their backcourt, playing Jeremy Lin alongside Patrick Beverley. Terrence Jones also stepped up, contributing 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting and grabbing nine rebounds.
Jones has made big strides in year two and may be the future starter at the 4-spot for Houston. The Kentucky product is averaging 11.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.45 blocks this season, while posting a PER of 18.58.
Jones’ biggest knock may be his inconsistency, but he’s shown he has good shooting range (though 28.6 percent isn’t a very good three-point mark) and athleticism and if he can add some bulk he should be a better defender against stronger power forwards. He’ll likely get plenty of opportunities to cover Nowitzki in this one, so that should be more than enough of a challenge for Jones.
HOU Trends: 0-4 ATS in last 4 when opponent scores 100 or more in previous game; UNDER 3-0-1 in last 4 overall; OVER 4-0 in last 4 vs teams with winning SU records.
DAL Trends: OVER 13-2-2 in last 17 vs teams with winning road records; OVER 5-1 in last 6 following ATS win; 5-1 ATS in last 6 after allowing 100 or more in previous game.
Head-to-head: Rockets 0-5 ATS in last 5 meetings in Dallas; OVER 4-1 in last 5 meetings; Rockets 9-24 ATS in last 33 meetings.
