MLB Picks: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

The Tampa Bay Rays (59-41) and Boston Red Sox (60-41) will continue a four-game American League East series Tuesday night at Fenway Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have won Jon Lester's last seven starts as a home favorite — The Boston Red Sox have won Jon Lester’s last seven starts as a home favorite

Tampa Bay has won six games in a row, including a 3-0 victory over Boston as -125 road favorites Monday, while going UNDER the betting total for the ninth time in 10 contests. The Rays became the fourth team in the last 10 years to go 18-2 or better over a 20-game span, which has the club knocking on the door within the division. “They’re a hot team,” commented Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino. Tampa Bay is 1-8 as road underdogs of +125 to +150 this season.

Rays starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez (5-10, 4.90 ERA) has led the club to back-to-back victories, including a 4-3 home win over the Houston Astros on June 13, as he allowed three runs and six hits over six frames. The right-hander is 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA in eight road outings, surrendering nine home runs in 47 combined frames. In 10 career games (eight starts) versus the Red Sox, Hernandez has tallied a 3-4 record and 3.66 ERA, including an 8-3 home win on June 11.

Boston has alternated wins and losses over its last five games, while going UNDER the total in four of those affairs. “We’re still in first place,” stated Victorino after the game. “They’re still a half-game behind us, so we still control our own destiny.” The Red Sox are in danger of losing a home series for the first time since May 10-12, but they’ve gone 5-2 in that situation against the Rays despite scoring just 20 combined runs over that span. Boston is 11-10 as home favorites of -125 to -150 this season, with the UNDER going 13-8 in that situation.

Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester (8-6, 4.58 ERA) has lost two consecutive outings, including an 3-0 road defeat to the Oakland Athletics last time out, as he allowed three runs and six hits over 6.1 frames. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in seven home appearances, with opposing hitters batting .225 against him. In 25 career games versus the Rays, Lester has compiled an 11-9 record and 4.36 ERA, including an 8-3 road loss versus Hernandez.