2013 Pac 12 Championship
#3 Oregon Ducks vs #1 UCLA Bruins
Saturday, March 13, 2013, 11:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
MGM Grand Arena – Las Vegas, Nevada
Opening Line: Oregon -1
Current Line: Oregon -1 1/2
Opening Total: 138
Current Total: 137 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -120 / UCLA +100
Current Money Line: Oregon -130 / UCLA +110
Both Oregon and UCLA are 25-8 this season. UCLA won the Pac 12 title outright with a 13-5 record, and Oregon was a game behind at 12-6, tied with Arizona and California. Oregon had a chance to win the title outright with wins in the final weekend at Colorado and Utah. The Ducks ended up losing both games, and fell to the #3 seed.
UCLA beat #9 Arizona St in the quarters 80-75 and #4 Arizona 66-64 in the semifinals. Oregon beat #6 Washington 80-77 in overtime in the quarters and beat #10 Utah 64-45 in the semifinals.
UCLA leads the series 83-30 against Oregon. The Ducks won the only meeting this season January 19 in LA 76-67. In that game UCLA was up by 3 at halftime, but Oregon shot 60% from the field in the second half to make the comeback.
Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses Cincinnati in a tournament in Las Vegas and at UTEP in triple overtime, Stanford, Cal twice, Colorado twice, and at Utah. Oregon has key wins over Vanderbilt, at UNLV, Nebraska, Nevada,Oregon St twice, Arizona, and Arizona St at UCLA and USC, and at home against Washington St twice, Washington twice, Utah and Stanford. Oregon is 12-18-1 ATS and the total is 10-15 this season.
Oregon is outscoring teams 73-63 this season. The Ducks are shooting 45.1% from the field and 31.3% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 71.9% of their free throws. The Ducks are #41 in rebounding with 37.9 per game. Oregon is 40th in rebounds allowed, with 27.7 per game. Duck opponents are shooting 40.6% from the field and 33% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 13 assists, 9 steals, 4 blocks and 13 turnovers.
Singler averages 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1 steal a game. Oregon guard Damyean Dotson averages 11 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1 assist. He is probable with a hip injury. Forward Carlos Emory averages 11.2 points and 4.4 rebounds. Guard Dominic Artis averages 10 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Artis missed 9 games with a foot injury. Center Tony Woods averages 9.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. Forward Arsalan Kazemi averages 9.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Waverly Austin, Ben Carter and and Johnathan Loyd make up the rest of the rotation. Loyd is questionable with an illness.
UCLA is coached by Ben Howland. The Bruins have losses to Georgetown in Brooklyn, at home against Cal Poly and Oregon, to San Diego St in Anaheim, at Arizona St, Cal, Washington St and at home to USC in overtime. The Bruins have key wins over Indiana St, UC-Irvine, James Madison, Georgia in Brooklyn, Texas in Houston, Long Beach St, Fresno St, Missouri, Cal, Stanford twice, Oregon St, Washington St, and Washington and at Utah, Colorado and Arizona St, at USC, Arizona St, and at Washington. The Bruins have won 7 of their last 8 games, and 3 in a row. UCLA is 15-17 ATS and the total is 11-15 this season.
UCLA is outscoring teams 75-69 this season. The Bruins are #26 in scoring. UCLA is shooting 45.7% from the field and shoot 34% from 3 point range. UCLA makes 72.4% of their free throws. The Bruins average 36.7 rebounds and give up 35.2 per game. Bruin opponents are shooting 42% from the field and 31.2% from 3 point range. UCLA averages 17 assists, 8 steals, 4 blocks, and 11 turnovers per game.
Guard/forward Shabazz Muhammad averages 18.2 points, and 5.2 rebounds a game. The freshman missed the first 3 games of the season due to being ineligible, but has been sensational since then. He will likely be an NBA lottery pick in June’s draft. Guard Jordan Adams averages 15 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. He broke his foot yesterday against Arizona and is out for the season. Forward Travis Wear averages 11.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1 block per game. Guard Kyle Anderson averages 9.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.8 steals. Guard Larry Drew II averages 7.7 points, 7.6 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Forward David Wear averages 7.1 points, and 5.1 rebounds per game. Guard Norman Powell averages 5.9 points, 2 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game. Little used guard David Brown is questionable with an ankle injury. Guard Nick Kazemi hasn’t played yet this season, and is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Oregon is 10-3 ATS after allowing less than 50 points, 2-6-1 after a straight up win, 3-11-1 overall, and in Pac 12 games, 2-8 against teams with winning records, 1-5 in Saturday games, and in neutral site games, and 0-3-1 after a cover. The Ducks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 against the Bruins.
UCLA is 4-0 ATS in Saturday games, against teams with winning records, 4-1 overall, and in Pac 12 games, 7-19 in neutral site games, and 4-11 after a cover.
The loss of Adams will hurt UCLA. No one knows from one night to the next which Oregon team will show up however. This team has some great wins and some puzzling head scratching losses. However, that has been true of the Pac 12 all season where any of the teams can beat the others. I like Oregon to win, but UCLA can certainly pull off the mild upset.
