Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at North Texas Mean Green
Tuesday, October 16, 2012, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Mean Green Stadium – Denton, Texas
Opening Line: UL-Lafayette -4 1/2
Current Line: UL-Lafayette -4
Opening Total: 57 1/2
Current Total: 56 1/2
Opening Money Line: ULL -175 / North Texas +155
Current Money Line: ULL -170 / North Texas +150

The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns and North Texas Mean Green meet Tuesday night in Denton. This is the 17th meeting between the schools, and the series is tied 8-8. The Ragin’ Cajuns have won 6 of the last 7 and 5 in a row in the series, including 30-10 last year in Lafayette.

UL-Lafayette is 4-1 this season and 2-0 in the Sun Belt under coach Mark Hudspeth. The only loss for the Cajuns came at Oklahoma St 65-24. ULL has home wins over Lamar 40-0, Florida International 48-20, and Tulane 41-13, along with a 37-24 win at Troy. The Cajuns were off last week because of this Tuesday night game. ULL is 3-2 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. The Cajuns were 30.5 point favorites last week at home against Tulane and the total was 54.5.

ULL is averaging 411.2 yards per game including 220.8 passing yards and 190.4 rushing yards. The Cajuns are outscoring opponents 38-24.4 this season. ULL is +8 in turnovers this season. UL-Lafayette has allowed 4 sacks this season. The Cajuns are 26/68 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/27 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. On defense, ULL is allowing 401.8 total yards per game, including 294.6 passing yards and 107.2 rushing yards. The Cajuns are 20th nationally in rush defense, but 117th out 0f 124 teams against the pass. ULL has forced 9 sacks this season. Cajun opponents are 38/90 on third and fourth down conversions and 14/16 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.

ULL quarterback Blaine Gautier is out indefinitely with a hand injury. Sophomore Terrance Broadway took over as the starter last week against Tulane. However, he and Gautier had split the snaps in the other ULL games. Gautier has 492 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions, along with 14 carries for 69 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Broadway is 45/77 passing (58.4%) for 612 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception, along with 28 carries, 135 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back Alonzo Harris has 74 carries, 374 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Effrem Reed has 45 carries, 264 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 43 yards. Receiver Harry Peoples has 19 catches, 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. Javone Lawson has 20 catches, 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. Darryl Surgent has 11 catches, 235 yards, and a touchdown. Tight end Jacob Maxwell has 9 catches, 62 yards and 2 touchdowns.

North Texas is 2-4 this season and 1-1 in the Sun Belt under coach Dan McCarney. The Mean Green have wins over Texas Southern at home 34-7 and at Florida Atlantic 20-14. North Texas has losses on the road to LSU 41-14, Kansas St 35-21, and at Houston 44-21, along with a home loss to Troy 14-7. The Mean Green are 2-4 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. North Texas was a 9.5 point underdog at Houston in their last game and the total was 58.

North Texas is averaging 380.2 yards per game including 205.8 passing yards and 174.3 rushing yards. The Mean Green are being outscored 25.8-19.5 this season. UNT is +4 in turnovers and has allowed 3 sacks. The Mean Green are 31/93 on third and fourth down conversions and 14/20 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. The Mean Green are allowing 395.3 yards per game on defense, including 218.8 passing yards and 176.5 rushing yards. North Texas has forced 13 sacks this season. Mean Green opponents are 35/85 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/18 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns.

UNT quarterback Derek Thompson has completed 94 of 169 passes (55.6%) for 1,235 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 19 carries, 31 yards and a touchdown. Running back Brandin Byrd has 101 carries, 380 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 31 yards. Antoinne Jimmerson has 68 carries, 367 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 74 yards. Jeremy Brown has 35 carries, 158 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 58 yards. Receiver Brelan Chancellor has 23 catches, 433 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 13 carries, 111 yards and a touchdown. Ivan Delgado has 27 catches with 369 yards. No other Mean Green receiver has more than 8 catches, or 92 yards. Seven North Texas players are listed as questionable or out including 3 tight ends.

ULL is 10-1 ATS in road games against teams with losing home records, 4-1 in Sun Belt games, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 16-5 after failing to cover, 6-2 overall, 21-8 in road games, 5-2 on fieldturf, and after a bye week, 5-11 after a straight up win, 2-5 after allowing 275 yards or less and 20 points or less, and 1-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more. The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently and four of the last five have gone over the total.

North Texas is 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 4-0 after a bye week, 5-2 after failing to cover, 9-4 after a straight up loss, 16-35 after allowing 450 yards or more, 6-20 against teams with winning records, 1-4 overall, 0-4 in Tuesday games, after gaining more than 450 yards, after a straight up loss of 20 points or more,  and at home against teams with winning road records. North Texas is 9-3 ATS against UL-Lafayette since the teams joined the Sun Belt. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Even though North Texas is playing at home, these mid-week college football games rarely provide a true home field advantage. The stadiums are usually half-filled if that. This is only the second nationally televised home game for North Texas since 2001. The problem is UL-Lafayette is much better than the Mean Green. I like the Cajuns to continue their winning streak against North Texas.

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