2012 NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional Semifinals
#13 Ohio Bobcats vs #1 North Carolina Tar Heels
Edward Jones Dome – St. Louis, Missouri
Friday, March 23, 2012, 7:47 pm Eastern, TV: TBS
Opening Line: North Carolina -10 1/2
Current Line: North Carolina -10 1/2
Opening Total: 143
Current Total: 143
Opening Money Line: UNC -625 / Ohio +500
Current Money Line: UNC -650 / Ohio +525
A wrist is something most of us take for granted. If we think of it at all it is only for a few seconds while we put on a watch or a bracelet. Unless we have an injury or chronic condition like arthritis or carpal tunnel syndrome, we don’t give our wrists a second thought. However for the North Carolina Tar Heels a broken wrist for point guard Kendall Marshall could mean the difference between a national title and losing.
Marshall leads the nation in assists with 9.8 a game. He had surgery on Monday and had his cast removed and replaced with a movable splint. It is on his non-shooting hand and he is questionable for Friday’s game against the Ohio Bobcats in the Midwest regional semifinals in St. Louis. For Marshall to play it will just be a matter of how much pain he can deal with. People who have had similar injuries say it is exceedingly painful to dribble, pass, shoot, and defend. Kobe Bryant has played the entire season at a very high level for the Lakers with a torn ligament in his non-shooting wrist. If Marshall can’t play the Tar Heels will be down to third string PG Stillman White who only averages 4.3 minutes a game.
North Carolina is 31-5 this season and coached by Roy Williams. The Tar Heels won the ACC regular season title but lost to Florida St in the ACC Championship game. North Carolina cruised to wins over Vermont 77-58 and Creighton 87-73 in Greensboro last week in the second and third rounds to get to the regionals.
The Tar Heels will take on the Cinderella #13 Ohio Bobcats in the Sweet 16. The 29-7 Bobcats, coached by John Groce, have won 6 games in a row including the MAC Championship game against Akron just to get into the tournament. The Bobcats upset #4 seed Michigan 65-60 and #12 South Florida 62-56 in the second and third rounds in Nashville last week. Ohio is in the regional semifinals for the first time since 1964. The Bobcats are one of four schools from Ohio left in the Sweet 16, along with Ohio St, Cincinnati, and Xavier. The winner of the UNC-Ohio game will play either NC State or Kansas in the regional final Sunday for a trip to the Final Four.
The series between Ohio and North Carolina is tied 1-1 but they haven’t played since 2002. Ohio upset the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill in that game.
Ohio has losses to Louisville, Robert Morris, Bowling Green, Akron, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Kent St. The Bobcats have wins over Lamar, Arkansas St, Marshall, Oakland, Portland, Wright St, Northern Iowa, Buffalo 3 times, Kent St, Miami-Ohio twice, Western Michigan, Ball St, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, UNC-Asheville, Akron twice, and Toledo.
North Carolina has wins over Michigan St, UNC-Asheville, Mississippi Valley St, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Evansville, Long Beach St, Texas, Boston College, Miami twice, Virginia Tech, NC State 3 times, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Maryland 3 times, Virginia twice, Clemson, and Duke. The Tar Heels have losses to UNLV, Kentucky, Duke, and Florida St twice.
Ohio is outscoring opponents 70-62 this season. The Bobcats are shooting 43% from the field and 34.2% from 3 point range. Ohio makes 68.8% of their free throws. The Bobcats average 34.3 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of -0.1. Ohio averages 13.1 assists, 13 turnovers, 9.3 steals, and 2.9 blocks a game. Bobcat opponents are shooting 41.2% from the field and 29.3% from 3 point range. Ohio is #11 in the country in 3 point defense. The Bobcats force 17.3 turnovers a game on defense.
Ohio guard D.J. Cooper averages 14.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 2.3 steals a game. Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring, assists, and steals. Walter Offutt averages 12 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. He makes 36.4% of his three point attempts. Reggie Keely averages 9.1 points, and 5 rebounds a game to tie for the team lead. Ivo Baltic averages 8.9 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. Nick Kellogg averages 8.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal a game. Forward TyQuane Goard is academically ineligible, and forward Kenny Belton is out indefinitely with an illness.
North Carolina is outscoring opponents 82-67 this season. The Tar Heels are #2 in the country in scoring. North Carolina shoots 46.1% from the field and 34.3% from 3 point range. UNC makes 68.4% from the free throw line. The Tar Heels lead the nation in rebounding with 44.8 rebounds a game, with a rebounding margin of +10.3. The Tar Heels average 17.3 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 6.9 steals, and 5.8 blocks a game. UNC is 4th nationally in assists. UNC opponents are shooting 39.4% from the field, and 31.7% from 3 point range. The Heels force 13.5 turnovers a game on defense.
UNC forward Harrison Barnes averages 17.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1.1 steals a game. He makes 38.2% of his 3 point attempts. Tyler Zeller averages 16.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1.4 blocks a game. John Henson averages 13.8 points, 10.1 rebounds to lead the team, 1.3 assists, and 3 blocks a game to lead the team. Ironically, Henson returned from his own wrist injury suffered in the ACC tournament against Creighton, the same game in which Marshall broke his wrist. Reggie Bullock averages 8.7 points, and 4.9 rebounds a game. He makes 38% of his three pointers. Marshall leads the Heels in assists with 9.8 a game and in steals with 1.2 a game. He also scores 8.1 points a game. Back-up point guard Dexter Strickland is out for the season with a torn ACL. Guard Leslie McDonald is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
UNC is 20-15 ATS and the total is 18-17 this season. Ohio is 15-13 ATS and the total is 12-16 this season. The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-1 as an NCAA tournament underdog, and after a cover, 20-6-1 as an underdog, 5-2 as a neutral site underdog, and 17-8 against teams with winning records. The Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in Friday games, 13-3 as an NCAA tournament favorite, including as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, 5-1 in non-conference games, 4-1 as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, 13-4 in NCAA tournament games, 9-3 as a favorite, against teams with winning records, and overall, 6-2 after a cover, 7-3 after a straight-up win, and 1-4 against MAC teams.
Without Marshall, the UNC offense doesn’t flow quite as well, but let’s not panic just yet. The Tar Heels still have 3 All-American quality players in Barnes, Zeller, and Henson. Ohio really has no pressure on them as they weren’t supposed to be here anyway, and North Carolina is a heavy favorite. I think Marshall’s absence will matter more in the next round against Kansas or North Carolina St. I like the Tar Heels to roll against the Bobcats just because everyone is saying North Carolina should just quit now because they have no shot without Marshall.
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