Tip off: 8:05 PM EST
Spread: MIL -8
Total: 177.5
M/L: MIL -400, DET +330
The Pistons have dropped five straight since an unlikely victory over the Magic on January 2nd. All five of those losses have come by 14 points or more, and the last game was actually the closest, a 14 point loss to the defending champion Mavericks. The loss pulled the Mavs to 5-5, but the Pistons are now 2-8. They did receive a huge game from the diminutive Will Bynum, who hit half his 14 field goal attempts to finish with 20 points.
No Pistons player is even averaging 15 points per game. Greg Monroe and Ben Gordon are both a hair under 15 points per game on the season, and the Pistons average just 82.8 points per contest, which accounts for the very low total set by NBA oddsmakers.
The Bucks are off to a 3-6 start. After winning two of their first three games, they dropped five straight before a win over San Antonio Tuesday night. The 106-103 victory was a big confidence builder for the Bucks, and Stephen Jackson went wild, scoring 34 points and dishing out 8 assists as 4 other Bucks joined him in double figures. Andrew Bogut, the Bucks 7-foot Australian big man, is averaging a double double on the season with 14.2 points per game and 10.2 boards per contest.
Pistons Betting Trends:
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Pistons’ last 6 games. The Pistons are 0-5 SU In their last 5 games and are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the Pistons’ last 5 games on the road and the Pistons are 2-15 SU In their last 17 road games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Pistons’ last 6 games against the Bucks and the Pistons are 14-5 SU in their last 19 against Milwaukee. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Pistons’ last 6 games on the road in Milwaukee and the Pistons are 8-3 SU in their last 11 road games against the Bucks.
Bucks Betting Trends:
The Bucks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games and the yare 1-5 SU in their last 6 games. The total has gone UNDER in 17 of their last 24 games at home and they are 5-0 SU In their last 5 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Bucks’ last 6 games against the Pistons and the Bucks are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games against the Pistons. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Detroit, and the Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Pistons. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Bucks’ last 6 games at home vs Detroit and the Bucks are 3-8 SU in their last 11 at home against the Pistons.
Key Matchup:
Brandon Knight / Rodney Stuckey vs. Brandon Jennings
Knight and Stuckey have both been seeing time at the point, and I expect Knight to see the majority of the minutes in this one because he is quicker and a better defender against smaller point guards like Jennings. Expect the Pistons to sometimes go with a three guard set, when they send Tayshaun Prince and/or Austin Daye to the bench. Jennings is going to need to attack the Pistons defense and break it down, because it lacks shot blockers. For as good as Greg Monroe is, he has trouble clearing a full foot off the ground, and Ben Wallace is no longer a shot blockign threat at all. Expect Jennings to work a lot of pick n rolls with Bogut to exploit this fact.
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