Tip off: 7:05 PM EST
Spread: ORL -11.5
Total: 181.5
M/L: ORL -900, NJN +650
The Magic struggled in their opening night loss to Oklahoma City, but came back nicely to defeat the Houston Rockets at home. Orlando is a good team at the Amway Center, and to see them favored by 11.5 over a Nets team that has struggled to score without their second best player in Brook Lopez, is hardly a surprise.
Indeed, it is not really a question of whether the Magic will win, but only of how much they will win by, and that is why you find the M/L at -900. If Deron Williams abused Jameer Nelson all night, MarShon Brooks caught fire, and Kris Humphries found a way to punish Ryan Anderson and Dwight Howard, there could be a Nets upset, but those are three unlikely things to occur that all have to happen at once for a Nets win.
Magic Trends: Orlando is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and 2-4-1 SU in their last 7 games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
Nets Trends: New Jersey is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games. They are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and 3-22 SU in their last 25 road games.
Key Matchup:
Deron Williams vs. Jameer Nelson
For all that can and can’t be said about Jameer Nelson, he competes. Though he stands far closer to 5’9″ than his listed 6’0″, Nelson is able to battle with much bigger players on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, I don’t think that will be the case with Deron Williams. Williams is already a big point guard and will have no problem getting his shots off over Nelson. That’s the problem: Williams will hit those shots. Unlike when Nelson goes against guys like Rajon Rondo, he can’t simply lay off Williams and let him shoot. That will spell trouble for the Magic. The great thing is, if Nelson does have to over commit, Dwight Howard will be there to protect the rim.
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