Cincinnati Bearcats at #8 Xavier Musketeers
Scintas Arena – Cincinnati, Ohio
Saturday, December 10, 2011, 12:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Xavier -7
Current Line: Xavier -7 1/2
Opening Total: 124
Current Total: 124 1/2
Opening Money Line: Xavier -335 / Cincinnati +285
Current Money Line: Xavier -380 / Cincinnati +290
The 5-2 Cincinnati Bearcats take on their crosstown rival the #8 7-0 Xavier Musketeers Saturday afternoon. Cincinnati leads the overall series 48-30 including a 66-46 win last year on the Bearcat’s home campus. Until a few seasons ago this game was always at a neutral site, but has been played at the campus sites recently. The Bearcats are coached by Mick Cronin, and have puzzling losses at home to Presbyterian 56-54 and Marshall 73-69 in overtime. Cincinnati has won two straight games against rival Miami-Ohio 56-47 and last Friday at Georgia 57-51. The Georgia win is by far the best win of the season for the Bearcats. Xavier is coached by Chris Mack. Xavier also has wins over Miami 66-60 and Georgia 70-56 along with road wins at Vanderbilt 82-70 and Wednesday night at Butler 73-61. The Musketeers also have a home win over Purdue 66-63.
Cincinnati was a 1.5 point favorite on the road at Georgia last Friday on the college basketball betting line. Cincinnati struggled in the first half, with an 8 minute stretch where they didn’t hit a field goal. Georgia took a 30-21 lead at halftime. Cincinnati shut down the Bulldogs in the second half. The Bearcats went on a 16-4 run early in the second half and never gave up the lead for the rest of the game. Cincinnati took a 38-31 lead with 13 minutes left, and Georgia only scored 3 field goals for the rest of the game. In fact, Georgia was only 6/21 shooting in the second half. The Bulldogs had 8 turnovers and 3 assists in the second half as the Bearcats won 57-51. The Bearcats were 19/49 shooting from the field but they did make 9 of 20 three pointers. Cincy was 10/19 from the free throw line. Both teams had 32 rebounds. Georgia had 13 turnovers and Cincinnati had 12. Bearcat guard Sean Kilpatrick had 22 points and 5 rebounds. He made 4 out of 9 three pointers he attempted. Guard Dion Dixon had 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists. Forward Yancy Gates scored only 5 points but had 8 rebounds.
Cincinnati is outscoring teams 69-60 this season. The Bearcats are shooting 43.7% from the field, including 33.8% on three pointers. The Bearcats are shooting 66.8% from the free throw line. Cincinnati pulls down 35.3 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +4.3. Cincinnati averages 14.2 assists, 11.5 turnovers, 7.4 steals, and 3.7 blocks a game. Cincinnati opponents are shooting 41.1% from the field, including 32.3% from 3-point range.
Kilpatrick is averaging 15 points to lead the team, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.3 assists a game. He is 16/35 on three point shots this season. Dixon averages 13.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. Dixon is 13/34 on three pointers. Gates averages 12.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.3 blocks a game. Guard Cashmere Wright averages 9.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists to lead the team, and 1.7 steals a game to tie for the team lead. Justin Jackson averages 6.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 2 blocks a game to lead the team. Guard Jaquon Parker is questionable with a groin injury. Forward Octavius Ellis is out until early January with a broken hand. Forward Shaquille Thomas is out indefinitely because of eligibility issues.
Xavier was a 5 point favorite at Butler Wednesday night. The game was close early until Xavier went on a 17-0 run. At one point Xavier was up by 18. Butler had only 5 first half baskets as Xavier jumped out to a 39-23 halftime lead. Butler fought back in the second half pulling to within 4 points at 45-41 with 13 minutes to go. However, Xavier held on for the 73-61 win. Xavier guard Tu Holloway struggled from the field hitting only 1 out of 7 shots. However he made 14 of his 16 free throws to lead the Musketeers with 16 points. Holloway also added 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 6 steals. Guard Mark Lyons also had 16 points. Guard/forward Dezmine Wells had 13 points.
Xavier is outscoring opponents 74-62 this season. The Musketeers are shooting 46.3% from the field, including 39.6% on three pointers. Xavier makes 63.3% of their free throws. The Musketeers average 41.1 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +6.6. Xavier averages 13.3 assists, 14.9 turnovers, 7.4 steals, and 4.4 blocks a game. Musketeer opponents are shooting 35.9% from the field, including 25.5% from 3 point range.
Holloway averages 17.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.7 steals a game. He leads the Musketeers in scoring, assists, and steals. Lyons averages 17.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. Kenny Frease averages 9.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2.1 blocks a game to lead the team. Wells averages 8.9 points and 4.3 rebounds. Travis Taylor averages 6.6 points and 6.9 rebounds a game to lead the team.
Xavier is 3-2 against the spread and the total is 2-3 this season. Cincinnati is 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 in this series and the under is 7-3 in the last 10. The Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in non-conference games, 1-4 after a straight up win, and overall. The Musketeers are 10-4 ATS after a straight up win, 3-7 in Saturday games, and as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, including 2-5 at home, 4-10-1 in non-conference games, 1-4 at home, and 0-6 at home against teams with winning road records.
Cincinnati has been inconsistent this season. They haven’t played a team nearly as talented as Xavier. This could get ugly, but recent history in this series suggests the underdog will cover. I see Xavier breaking that trend and winning by double digits.
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