Marshall Thundering Herd at Memphis Tigers
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee
Thursday, November 17, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports Net
Opening Line: Marshall -13
Current Line: Marshall -11 1/2
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 50 1/2
Opening Money Line: Marshall -440 / Memphis +365
Current Money Line: Marshall -425 / Memphis +350
The Marshall Thundering Herd have an outside shot of winning the Conference USA East division if they win their remaining two games and Southern Miss loses out. The 4-6 Herd need to win both games to be bowl eligible. Marshall is 3-3 in Conference USA under coach Doc Holliday. Marshall has home wins over Southern Miss 26-20, Rice 24-20, and UAB 59-14, along with a road win at Louisville 17-13. The Thundering Herd have losses at West Virginia 34-13, Ohio 44-7, UCF 16-6, Houston 63-28, and last week at Tulsa 59-17, along with a home loss to Virginia Tech 30-10. Marshall travels to 2-8 Memphis Thursday night. The Tigers are 1-5 in Conference USA under coach Larry Porter. Memphis has a home win over Austin Peay 27-6 and a road win at Tulane 33-17. The Tigers have home losses to Mississippi St 59-14, SMU 42-0, East Carolina 35-17, and last week to UAB 41-35. The Tigers hove road losses at Arkansas St 47-3, Middle Tennessee St 38-31, Rice 28-6, and Central Florida 41-0. Marshall leads the series 4-2 against Memphis and the Thundering Herd have won 3 straight games against the Tigers including 28-13 in Huntington last year.
Marshall was a 19.5 point underdog last week at Tulsa on the college football betting line. Marshall was never in the game as Tulsa jumped out to a 42-3 halftime lead. The Golden Hurricane rolled to an easy 59-17 win. There were 5 combined turnovers in the game, 3 by Marshall. The Thundering Herd had 393 total yards including 165 rushing yards. Marshall quarterback Rakeem Cato threw for 163 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Travon Van had 17 carries, 114 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Aaron Dobson had 3 catches, 65 yards and a touchdown reception. Tulsa racked up 682 yards including 380 rushing yards.
Marshall is averaging 328.6 total yards and 20.7 points a game. The Herd average 205.6 passing yards and 123 rushing yards a game. Marshall has 18 turnovers and has allowed 20 sacks this season. The Thundering Herd are 55/161 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/26 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Marshall is allowing 432.3 yards and 31.3 points a game. The Herd give up 263.1 passing yards and 169.2 rushing yards a game. Marshall has forced 24 turnovers and 22 sacks this season. Herd opponents are 57/148 on third and fourth down conversions, and 38/47 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. Marshall has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Marshall quarterbacks Cato and A.J. Graham split the snaps but Cato takes most of them. Cato is 119/213 passing for 1,342 yards, 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 39 carries for 22 yards. Graham is 64/103 passing for 714 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with 40 carries, 237 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back Tron Martinez has 109 carries, 466 yards and a touchdown, along with 11 catches for 98 yards. Van has 118 carries, 401 yards, and a touchdown, along with 12 catches for 74 yards. The Herd have only 5 rushing touchdowns all year. Dobson has 36 catches 455 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Antavious Wilson has 25 catches and 336 yards. Troy Evans has 20 catches, 269 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Gator Hoskins has 13 catches, 116 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Tyler Warner is 24/24 on extra points and 7/10 on field goals with a long of 45 yards.
Memphis hosted UAB last week. Memphis was up 35-17 at the end of the third quarter but the Blazers scored 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 41-35 and cover the 5 point spread. The Tigers had 384 total yards including 217 rushing yards. Memphis quarterback threw for 167 yards, with 2 touchdown passes, and rushed for 35 yards. Running back Jerrell Rhodes had 17 carries, 95 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Billy Foster had 10 carries 87 yards and a touchdown, and also had 3 catches for 79 yards. UAB had 601 total yards including 410 passing yards. The Blazers had the only 2 turnovers of the game.
Memphis averages 283.3 yards and 16.6 points a game. The Tigers average 187.1 passing yards and 96.2 rushing yards a game. Memphis had 15 turnovers and has allowed 24 sacks this season. The Tigers are 50/159 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/19 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Memphis is allowing 505.9 yards a game including the nation’s worst pass defense allowing 315.8 yards a game. The rush defense isn’t much better allowing 190.1 yards a game. Memphis opponents are scoring 35.4 points a game. The Tigers have forced 21 turnovers and 11 sacks this season. Memphis opponents are 73/151 on third and fourth down conversions, and 35/44 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. Memphis has 2 defensive touchdowns on the season.
Reed is 157/275 passing for 1,581 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also has 64 carries, 80 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Foster has 113 carries, 457 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 20 catches, 295 yards, and a touchdown reception. Artaves Gibson has 91 carries, for 298 yards, and 8 catches for 41 yards. Rhodes 30 carries, 152 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Tannar Rehrer has 54 catches, 449 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kevin Wright, Marcus Rucker, and Keiwone Malone also get significant catches. Justin Henderson only has 6 catches but 2 of them went for touchdowns. Kicker Paulo Henriques is 19/21 on extra points and 7/13 on field goals with a long of 50 yards.
Memphis is 3-7 against the spread and the total is also 3-7 this season. Marshall is 6-4 ATS and the total is 4-6 this year. The last four meetings between Marshall and Memphis have gone under the total. The Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS following a straight up loss, 13-3 after scoring less than 20 points in the last game, 4-1 after failing to cover, 3-1-1 as a favorite and against teams with losing records, 5-2 after allowing 40 points or more in the previous game, 7-3 after a straight up loss of more than 20 points, 4-9 in road games, 2-5-1 in November, 8-22-2 as a road favorite, 1-4-1 in road games against teams with losing home records and as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 0-4 in Thursday games, and 0-6 as a road favorite of 10.5 points or more. The Tigers are 5-12-1 ATS after failing to cover, 8-22-1 as underdog, 2-6-1 after allowing 40 points or more in the last game, 2-6 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 2-8 at home, 1-4 against teams with losing records, and overall, 1-5 in conference games, 1-7 as a home underdog of 10.5 points or more, 1-9 at home against teams with losing road records, 0-4 as a home underdog, and on turf.
Yes, Memphis is awful, and is one of the worst teams in the country. I am just not sure a mediocre Marshall team should be an 11 1/2 point road favorite over anyone. It depends on which Marshall team shows up. If it is the one that beat Southern Miss and Louisville then the Thundering Herd should win easily. however, if it is the team that lost to Ohio and Rice, then Memphis has a great shot to get the cover and maybe even pull off the upset.
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