South Florida Bulls at Connecticut Huskies
Rentschler Field – East Hartford, Connecticut
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Big East Network, SNY, ESPN Game Plan
Opening Line: South Florida -6
Current Line: South Florida -7 1/2
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 46 1/2
Opening Money Line: USF -280 / UConn +240
Current Money Line: USF -300 / UConn +250
South Florida and Connecticut are both coming off blowout conference losses and are hungry for a win. South Florida is 4-1 this season under Skip Holtz, after a loss 2 weeks ago at Pittsburgh 44-17. The Bulls have wins at Notre Dame 23-20, and home wins against Ball St 37-7, Florida A&M 70-17, and UTEP 52-24. UConn is in full rebuilding mode under first year coach Paul Pasqualoni, as the Huskies are 2-4 this season. The Huskies have wins at home against Fordham 35-3 and at Buffalo 17-3. UConn has losses at Vanderbilt 24-21, home against Iowa St 24-20, at home against Western Michigan 38-31, and last week at West Virginia 43-16. With so many close losses UConn could easily be 5-1. This is the 9th meeting between the schools and the series is tied 4-4. The home team had won all meetings until last year when UConn won in Tampa Bay 19-16. The win clinched the Big East title for the Huskies and sent them to the Fiesta Bowl.
South Florida was a 2.5 point favorite at Pitt two weeks ago in a game nationally televised by ESPN on a Thursday night. The game was close at halftime with Pitt winning 20-17. However, the Panthers outscored the Bulls 24-0 at halftime to win 44-17. South Florida had 425 total yards, including 202 rushing yards. Quarterback B.J. Daniels threw for 223 yards with no touchdowns or picks, but he did rush for 43 yards and a touchdown. Running back Darrell Scott rushed for 76 yards, and Demetris Murray had 67 yards rushing and a touchdown. Receiver Sterling Griffin had 5 catches for 109 yards. South Florida was unable to overcome 6 penalties and 2 lost fumbles in the loss . Pitt had 523 yards including 307 rushing yards.
South Florida is averaging 510 yards a game including 229.6 rushing yards a game. The Bulls score 39.8 points a game. The Bulls are in the top 15 nationally in all three categories. South Florida has allowed 7 sacks and has 7 turnovers in 5 games. The Bulls are 30/71 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/24 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchd0wns. USF is allowing 355.6 yards a game including 127.4 rushing yards. The Bulls are giving up 22.4 points a game. USF has forced 14 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Bull opponents are 29/84 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/17 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns.
Daniels is 100/160 passing for 1,294 yards, 8 touchdowns, and an interception, along with 52 carries, 258 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Scott has 65 carries, 424 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 5 catches, 113 yards, and a touchdown. Murray has 52 carries, 255 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 5 catches for 61 yards. Griffin has 27 catches for 357 yards and a touchdown. Victor Marc has 10 catches, 127 yards, and a touchdown. Lindsey Lamar has 9 catches, 124 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Maikon Bonani is 25/25 on extra points and 8/11 on field goals with a long of 49 yards.
Connecticut played at #16 West Virginia last week. The Huskies were down only 10-9 at halftime despite managing just 3 field goals. However, West Virginia scored 33 unanswered points to open the second half. Connecticut had a 48 yard interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to make the final score 43-16, but West Virginia still covered the 19 point college football betting line. UConn had only 275 total yards in the loss including 82 rushing yards. The Huskies had only 16 first downs and were held without an offensive touchdown. The Huskies had 7 penalties and a turnover. West Virginia scored a safety in the third quarter. West Virginia had 541 total yards including 469 passing yards.
UConn is averaging 331.5 yards a game, including 211.5 passing yards. The Huskies are scoring 23.3 points a game. UConn has 10 turnovers and has allowed 17 sacks. The Huskies are 26/91 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. Connecticut is allowing 353.2 total yards a game including the 6th best rush defense in the country allowing 74.7 yards a game. The pass defense is among the worst in the country allowing 278.5 yards a game. The Huskies are allowing 22.5 points a game. UConn has forced 12 turnovers and 18 sacks. Husky opponents are 31/98 on third and fourth down conversions and 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.
UConn quarterback Johnny McEntee is 86/166 passing for 1,106 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Back-up Scott McCummings takes a few snaps as well. He has completed 2 of his 4 passes, both for touchdowns, but is mostly used as a runner with 33 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown. Running back Lyle McCombs has 143 carries, 575 yards, and 4 touchdowns along with 9 catches, 108 yards, and a touchdown catch. Back-up D.J. Shoemate is out for the season with a shoulder injury. He only had 8 carries before the injury, and will redshirt this year. Receiver Isiah Moore has 22 catches, 305 yards, and no touchdowns. Ryan Griffin has 17 catches, 285 yards and a touchdown. Kashif Moore has 19 catches, 256 yards, and 3 scores. Nick Williams has only 5 catches, but he has 160 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Dave Teggart is 15/15 on extra points, and 9/14 on field goals with a long of 53 yards.
UConn is 1-5 against the spread this season, and the total is 2-4 this season. South Florida is 3-2 ATS this season and the total is 3-2 as well. The Huskies are 15-3 ATS in the last 18 as an underdog of 3.5-10 points, 8-1 ATS as a home underdog including 7-1 as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog, 5-1 ATS in the last 6 conference games, 21-8 ATS in the last 29 following a game where they failed to cover, 20-8 following a straight up loss, 27-12 in the last 39 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 October games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 overall, and 0-5 in their last 5 on grass. South Florida is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 road games, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 following a game where they failed to cover, 5-2 ATS in the last 7 following a straight up loss, 2-5 ATS in the last 7 as a favorite, 1-4 in theor last 5 conference games and as aroad favorite.
Both teams were blown out in their last game, but the South Florida loss was probably a fluke as they should compete for the Big East title with West Virginia and Cincinnati. UConn is good at stopping the run, which is the strength of South Florida on offense. However, I don’t think the Huskies can score enough points to keep up with the high powered Bulls offense. I like South Florida to cover rather easily. Even though the line has moved from 6 to 7 1/2 points, that is still good value.
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