UNLV Rebels at Wisconsin Badgers
Thursday, September 1, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Wisconsin -35
Current Line: Wisconsin -35
Opening Total: 54 1/2
Current Total: 56
Money Line: Wisconsin -23000 / UNLV +7000
Though not exactly USC-Notre Dame, Wisconsin and UNLV have played quite frequently for schools 2,000 miles apart. Wisconsin leads the series 7-2 straight up, including 3-1 in Madison. The two teams met in Las Vegas last season to open the season, with the Badgers winning 41-21. UNLV stunned the Badgers in Madison in 2003 23-5, the last time Wisconsin lost a non-conference home game. The Rebels have covered the spread in the last 4 meetings against the Badgers.
UNLV is coming off a 2 win season in the first year under head coach Bobby Hauck. Wisconsin finished last season 11-2 as co-Big Ten champions with Ohio St and Michigan St under coach Brett Bielema. They lost 21-19 to TCU in the Rose Bowl.
UNLV had one of the worst offenses in the country last season averaging 275 yards and 18.4 points a game. The defense wasn’t much better giving up 451.5 yards and 39.7 points a game. This year sophomore Caleb Herring takes over as the starting quarterback for the Rebels, after a tight battle with JUCO transfer Sean Reilly and redshirt frosh Taylor Barnhill. Herring was 28 for 56 last year with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in limited action last year. Leading rusher sophomore Tim Cornett returns after he had 144 carries, 546 yards, and 6 touchdowns last season. Cornett also had 13 catches and 2 touchdowns. Sophomore Bradley Randle had a strong camp and will get significant carries as well, along with redshirt freshman William Vea who moved from linebacker to fullback. The receivers are led by All Mountain West selection senior Phillip Payne who missed most of camp with a broken foot. He is expected to start against Wisconsin. Senior Michael Johnson led the Rebs in receptions last year but was suspended for most of the spring for violating team rules. He isn’t listed on the depth chart but is expected to see plenty of snaps. Sophomore Marcus Sullivan and freshman Taylor Spencer are also expected to get some targets as well. The line will start two freshmen in left tackle Cameron Jefferson and center Robert Waterman. The line was a mess last year, so any improvement will be a blessing.
Senior linebacker Nate Carter and senior cornerback Quinton Pointer will lead the defense. Pointer missed all of last season except for one snap with a torn ACL. JUCO transfer Princeton Jackson and C.J. Cox will also see time at linebacker. Senior Will Chandler led the Rebels in interceptions last year, but will split time at the other corner with sophomore Sydney Hodge. The defense looks to improve on a unit that was ranked #110 in the country last year.
After losing quarterback Scott Tolzien to the NFL, it looked like the Badgers would be inexperienced at the quarterback position. However, in late June Wisconsin received a gift when talented North Carolina St quarterback Russell Wilson transferred to Wisconsin. He has 8,545 career passing yards and 76 touchdowns at NC State. Wilson will start Thursday night. Sophomore Jon Budmayr was listed as the starter before Wilson’s arrival, but he hasn’t thrown in practice since August 9 with a swollen elbow. Budmayr will miss at least the UNLV game and possible more. He could need surgery on the elbow and could miss an extended period of time. Of course, Wisconsin only throws the ball occasionally as the bread and butter is the running game. Last season the Badgers ran for over 247 yards a game behind the three headed rushing attack of James White, John Clay and Montee Ball. Clay left for the NFL but White and Ball return. The trio combined for over 500 carries, over 3,000 yards, and 46 touchdowns last season, and all three contributed to the passing game as well. Senior Nick Toon is the top returning receiver. He had 36 catches, 459 yards, and 3 touchdowns last year. Sophomore Jared  Abbrederis had 20 catches for 289 yards and 3 scores last year and will be the #2 receiver. Senior Jake Byrne takes over as the tight end for Lance Kendricks who is now playing for the Rams in the NFL. The offensive line loses two all Big Ten players in Gabe Carimi and John Moffitt. However, the line will still be great but they have some young players that need to mature.
Wisconsin allowed 322.1 yards and 20.5 yards a game last season. Both ranked in the top 25 in the country last year. The Badgers return 6 starters from that unit including linebacker Chris Borland. The secondary is led by free safety Aaron Henry and corner Antonio Fenelus. The defense should still be one of the best in the country.
UNLV is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday night games, and 4-0 ATS in their last games against Big Ten foes. Although, all four of those Big Ten games were against Wisconsin. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of +10.5 or more. UNLV is 0-7 against the spread on the road the last 2 seasons.
Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games including 4-0 as a favorite and 4-0 at home.
Last season UNLV was only down 17-14 at the half against Wisconsin in Las Vegas, before Wisconsin pulled away in the second half to win by 20. UNLV has covered 4 straight games against Wisconsin. The Badgers host Oregon St next week and could overlook a lowly UNLV team. The Rebels could stay within 3 or 4 touchdowns which would give you a cover if you took the dog. A backdoor cover is also possible if the Badgers jump out to a huge lead and pull their starters. It isn’t a question of Wisconsin being the better team but how much the Badgers feel like pounding the Rebels. The Badgers could get bored and let UNLV hang around the number. Then again Wisconsin hung at least 70 points on Austin Peay, Indiana, and Northwestern last year, and even scored 83 against the Hoosiers.
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