Cincinnati Reds (47-49) AT Pittsburgh Pirates (50-44)
July 19, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line: CIN -126, PIT +106
Current Line: CIN -125, PIT +105
Opening Total: 8
Current Total: 8.5
SP: CIN- Mike Leake; PIT- James McDonald
By all means, this season was a surprise for the Pittsburgh Pirates. They haven’t reached these heights since the late 80s/early 90s when Barry Bonds was a Pirate. The Pirates had +10,000 odds of winning the NL Central this season, after finishing 57-105 in 2010.
I had this to say about the Pirates in my season preview:
Evidenced by their ridiculous odds, the Pirates offer no betting prospects as anything other than another last place finish in the NL Central seems inevitable.
It’s human to be wrong from time to time, and I certainly was there. It’s rare, however, when a small market team like Pittsburgh manages to gather an appropriate of home grown talent to be competitive. There was a lot of optimism when they brought in Clint Hurdle to manage the team, and they did and do have a host of young talented players.
Pittsburgh will be seeking their sixth straight victory over the Reds tonight for the first time since 1991 when they had a 9 game run. The Pirates lead the season series over the Reds 6-1. Not bad considering that the Reds were the favorite with +180 odds of winning the NL Central.
“The Pirates have had our number all year, man,” Reds 2B Brandon Phillips resigned himself. “I don’t know what it is, but I’ll tell you one thing: They’re a good team, they’re for real.”
Neil Walker and Chase d’Arnaud have been particularly impressive for the Pirates. Walker has a 12 game hitting streak, a span over which he his hitting .460 with 10 RBIs.
The Reds are going to send Mike Leake to the mound. Leake is 8-4 with a 4.28 ERA this season, and is the only Reds’ pitcher with a victory over the Pirates this season. Leake gave up 2 runs over 6 innings in a win on April 16th, to improve to 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Pirates. He’s 3-0 with a 2.13 over his last 4 road starts. Leake is only 23 years old, and was not expected to be this good this quick.
He showed his promise by entering straight into the majors and never playing at the minor league level. Last season, he compiled a 4.23 ERA, and this year has been very similar. His WHIP last season was 1.50 and this season it is down to a much more respectable 1.20
James McDonald pitch for the Pirates. He is 5-4 with a 4.42 ERA this season and will be facing the Reds for the third time in 2011. In his first two outings, he gave up 7 runs over 4 1/3rds and 1 run over 6 2/3rds innings, with the first start a loss and the second a win. Brandon Phillips has hit 4 of 6 in his career against McDonald, whose ERA over his last 6 starts has been in the mid threes (3.41).
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Reds’ last 5 games and it has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 on the road. The Reds are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Pirates. The Reds are 5-2 SU in their last 7 on the road against the Pirates.
The total has gone OVER In 6 of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 8 games and the Pirates are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. The total has gone OVER In 4 of their last 5 at home and the Pirates are 9-3 SU in their last 12 home games. The Pirates are 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Cincinnati Reds, and they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 against the Reds at home.
Mike Leake does give the Reds an advantage. He’s been a true prodigy since he was drafted and should be able to give the Pirates some tough pitches to drive. He’s considered a “ground ball machine” by some and he is actually a good hitter too with a .289 TAv, second among pitchers with at least 60 plate appearances. So a Moneyline on the Reds seems prudent.
