Atlanta Hawks AT Chicago Bulls
May 10, 2011 8 PM EST
Opening Line:  CHI -9
Current Line:  CHI -9
Opening Moneyline:  CHI -575, ATL +475
Current Moneyline:  CHI -500, ATL +400
Opening Total:  181
Current Total:  181

Series Tied 2-2

Derrick Rose once again scored a lot of points in game four, 32 of them in fact, but it took him 32 field gaol attempts to do it, 2 more attempts taken the rest of the starting lineup COMBINED.  And it wasn’t just the scoring in which he seemed to be alone in, he also felt his team was outplayed and outhustled all game.  “They just played harder, getting to loose balls, second effort, chasing balls down,” Rose commented in frustration.

Rose and the Bulls know it will take a much more refined effort to take a crucial game five.  If they come out flat again in Game 5, it will push them to the brink of elimination to the 5th seeded Hawks, who have surpassed everyones’ expectations after disposing of the 4th seeded Magic in 6 games and now pushing the Bulls in a series that may go 7 games.  It’s been a lot of success from a team that only finished 3 games above .500 in the regular season.  Jamal Crawford takes the approach that it is now a “three game series.”

“We do feel like that,” Crawford commented.  “Sure other teams feel like that as well. Right now, it’s just a three-game series. Who thought we’d be here at this point? … I like our chances. But I’m sure every other team like theirs as well.”

Despite the must win nature of game 5s in tied series, Derrick Rose doesn’t feel like the pressure is on his Bulls.  “If anything, I think that all of us are mad with the effort that we put in the last game,” he said. “It wasn’t good enough. Tomorrow, we’re playing back in our building. The atmosphere is going to be unbelievable, and we’re just going to have to play….“I was just missing shots,” he said. “Looking at film, I missed a ton of layups—layups I normally don’t miss. It wasn’t like I was taking a whole bunch of crazy shots or a whole bunch of jump shots. Those were shots that I normally make. My confidence is still high. My teammates, they trust me. I have confidence when I’m taking shots, and I’m going to continue to.”

After being outplayed in games 1 and 2, Josh Smith has outplayed Deng in games 3 & 4.  Earlier in the series, I said that this matchup was going to prove crucial with the teams so deadlocked.  Both small forwards are X-factors on their respective teams due to their inconsistency and also their potential.  Josh Smith nearly had a triple double in game 4, finishing with 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists.  “I just went out there played my game, played with a ton of confidence,” said Smith.  “Just rolled with the tidal wave with the crowd. And we got it done last night.”

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Atlanta’s last 20 games and the total has also gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games on the road.  The Hawks are 2-7 SU in their last 9 on the road and they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against the Bulls.  The total has gone OVER In 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games against the Bulls.  The Hawks are 2-4 SU in their last 6 against the Bulls and the Hawks are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games against the Bulls.  The total has gone OVER In 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games on the road against the Bulls, while the Hawks are 4-10 SU in their last 14 on the road against Chicago.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games and the Bulls are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.  The Bulls are 22-2 SU in their last 14 at home and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at home.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games against Atlanta and the Bulls are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games against Atlanta.  Chicago is 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Hawks and the total has gone OVER  in 5 of the last 7 home games against Atlanta.  Chicago is 10-4 SU in their last 14 at home against the Hawks.

Given Chicago’s success at home, it’s easy to understand why the line could plausibly be set at 9 points in their favor.  However, it is a series that is tied 2-2 and the Hawks have seemingly found a way not to stop Derrick Rose but to make him inefficient.  Teague must continue to push Rose defensively by driving to the hoop a lot.  Rose can’t be expended to the max on both ends if the Bulls are going to win this game — and series.