(5) Atlanta Hawks vs. (1) Chicago Bulls
Series Odds: CHI -900, ATL +550

Game I:

Opening Line:  CHI -9.5
Current Line:  CHI -8.5
Opening Total:  179
Current Total:  178
Opening Moneyline:  CHI -1200, ATL +800
Current Moneyline:  CHI -475, ATL +390

Game 1 Monday, May 2, Atlanta at Chicago, 8 p.m., TNT

Game 2 Wednesday, May 4, Atlanta at Chicago, 8 p.m., TNT

Game 3 Friday, May 6, Chicago at Atlanta, 7 p.m., ESPN

Game 4 Sunday, May 8, Chicago at Atlanta, 8 p.m., TNT

Game 5 Tuesday, May 10, Atlanta at Chicago, TBD, TNT*

Game 6 Thursday, May 12, Chicago at Atlanta, TBD, ESPN*

Game 7 Sunday, May 15, Atlanta at Chicago, TNT*

Atlanta shocked experts and fans alike by not only disposing of the Orlando Magic, but doing so in 6 games.  Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford gave the Orlando backcourt fits, but Chicago matches up much better there.  With a full sized point guard (instead of pint sized Jameer Nelson) and two above average defenders at shooting guard in Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer, the Bulls have the pieces ready defensively to slow down the hot shooting Atlanta backcourt.

The Bulls are heavily favored in this series, but could be without starting power forward Carlos Boozer, who is day to day with a turf toe injury.  The severity of the injury is unknown, but turf toe’s only elixir is a lot of rest, something Boozer and the Bulls can ill afford to do.

“Basically, he just did a little more shooting,” said Tom Thibodeau on Boozer.  “He’s moving a lot better. He did his lifting and he was on the bike. He’s feeling a lot better. We’ll see what he can do (Monday). Each day he’s gotten better and better, so we’re encouraged by that. We’ll see if he can get through the shoot around (Monday), then we’ll let him warm up (Monday) night and see if he’s ready to go.”

If Boozer is unable to go, the Bulls do have an adequate replacement at least defensively in shot blocker Taj Gibson.  Gibson will leave the Bulls with a dearth of offensive production, but with Rose and Deng performing to the best of their capabilities, that shouldn’t be a problem.  Let’s take a look at the matchups involved in this series.

Point Guard

Kirk Hinrich / Jamal Crawford vs. Derrick Rose

The Bulls will encounter their former point guard Kirk Hinrich.  Hinrich spent his first 7 seasons in the NBA in a Bulls uniform and in his second through fourth year in the league, he put up impressive numbers, scoring over 15 a game in all three seasons, while recording over 6 assists per game, and even making an impact defensively, where he averaged over a steal a game.  He hasn’t been nearly as impressive since leaving Chicago and playing with both Washington and now Atlanta.  He is a good defender, but a good defender isn’t a great one, and stopping Derrick Rose requires GREAT defense.

Rose has both a speed and strength advantage on Hinrich, but Hinrich is crafty defensively and stays in front of his man well for a player with minimal foot speed laterally.  Hinrich is also shooting 42.1% from three while a member of the Atlanta Hawks, so Rose will be forced to stay honest on Hinrich offensively.  Hinrich is on the verge of getting destroyed, however, while Jamal Crawford doesn’t stand much of a chance either when he plays the point.

Advantage:  Chicago

Shooting Guard

Joe Johnson / Jamal Crawford  vs. Keith Bogans & Ronnie Brewer

As mentioned in the onset of this article, the Bulls are very fortunate to have two above average defenders at shooting guard.  I don’t expect Bogans or Brewer to shut down the Atlanta duo, but they will make them work for their shots and nothing will come easy.  Expect a lot of contested jumpers off the dribble for the Atlanta guards, something both Crawford and Johnson sometimes fare well with and sometimes don’t.  Both are streaky shooters and when they get hot it won’t matter if they are 18 feet away and falling away with a hand in their face, but when they are cold it’s almost best to feign defense and give away the jumper, especially in the case of Crawford who is known to have a poor shot selection.

Bogans and Brewer will offer the Bulls close to nothing offensively, but Bogans is capable of hitting the corner three and Brewer will sometimes get a bucket or two slashing to the hole.  Any offense the Bulls get from these two is icing though, since that isn’t their primary reason for being on the court to begin with.

Advantage:  Atlanta

Small Forward

Josh Smith vs. Luol Deng

Both Smith and Deng are very effective players and they both do their damage to opposing defenses in different ways.  Smith relies on a lot of sweeping shots coming from the right block across the lane and he is also known to get a lot of put backs, using his superior athleticism (superior to almost all players in the league).  Deng, on the other hand, will shoot a good number of threes where he hit 1.4 a game in the regular season on 34.5% shooting.  Deng may not have lived up to the huge contract he inked years ago, but he has been very solid.  He’s averaging 16.0 points per game over his career and came within 0.2 points per game of tying his career high for scoring average (he set it last season).  Smith’s defense could potentially frustrate Deng, as Smith’s athleticism will change a lot of shots.

Advantage:  Even

Power Forward

Al Horford vs. Carlos Boozer (Taj Gibson Tonight?)

Both Horford and Boozer are All-Stars and both are relied on heavily by their respective teams.   Boozer is the better offensive player, while Horford is superior defensively.  Both are excellent rebounders and averaged nearly 10 boards a game this season.  Horford should be able to use his size to get good post opportunities against the much shorter Boozer.  Horford was effective in the post against the Magic, and could experience even more success against Boozer (though Bass for Orlando was also undersized).

If the Bulls are forced to go with Taj Gibson tonight, or even further into this series, they’ll receive a defensive upgrade, and Gibson isn’t horrible offensively.  He’s capable of hitting the mid range jumper and scoring put backs and his per-36 stats work out to a near double double.  His field goal percentage did regress this year from 49% to 46%, but that can easily just be an anomaly.

If Boozer doesn’t play, the Hawks will have a pretty big advantage at this position.  If Boozer does play…it will be about even.

Advantage:  Even (Goes to Atlanta if Boozer sits)

Center

Zaza Pachulia / Jason Collins / Hilton Armstrong / Josh Powell / Etan Thomas  Vs Joakim Noah & Omar Asik

It’s hardly worth listing Atlanta’s five headed monster here, because outside of Pachulia (and he’s questionable too) Atlanta’s centers are garbage.  There’s almost no words to express how bad Collins is and he saw a lot of minutes against Orlando.  Given the fact that Chicago’s Joakim Noah isn’t really an option in offensive sets, it’s likely that Atlanta goes with their “small” lineup a lot, Hinrich/Crawford/Johnson/Smith/Horford.  The Hawks will be wise to put Pachulia on Noah as he is really the only one of the Atlanta centers that isn’t afraid to mix it up and his flopping could frustrate Noah just as it did Howard.  Pachulia is just one of those players that can get under an opponent’s skin, and really he’s the only Atlanta center that really even belongs on an NBA roster.

Advantage:  Chicago

Given the fact that two of the positions are draws and 2 of the other 3 go to Chicago, it’s easy to see why the Bulls are favored.  Few analysts are expecting this series to go 7 games, and many predict it will end in 5.  Expect a lot of low scoring, grind-it-out games, which won’t be exciting, and other than the occasional jaw dropping jam by Rose or Josh Smith, this series won’t be a pretty one to watch.  When it’s all said and done, I firmly expect the Bulls to be facing the Heat next round.

Series Prediction:  Chicago in 6