Game 5:  Denver Nuggets AT Oklahoma City Thunder
April 27th, 2011 at 9:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  OKC -6
Current Line:   OKC -7
Opening Total:  205
Current Total:  204

Thunder Lead Series 3-1

Tonight, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will take the Nuggets back to Oklahoma, looking to close out a series in which they won the first three games.

Russell Westbrook may have been a bit trigger happy.  He attempted 30 shots, certainly a sign he may think he has alpha dog status.  Not much has been made of it, and Brooks dismissed it because of the fact he will learn from the experience.  “Did he take too many shots? Absolutely. But that being said, you learn from it and you move on and you get better from it. Russell is a player that will get better every year.”

It wasn’t just displeasure with Westbrook that Brooks found to be a problem.  “I would like to say that we’re going to win every game and we’re going to have multiple sweeps, but that’s not the way this league works,” Brooks said. “There’s usually two teams that are trying to win, and they did.”

Essentially, while the Nuggets have little chance of winning the season, they did not simply roll over and die either, but are still playing as though they could win a series.

And then there is the matter of pride.  Brooks commented, “We knew that they were going to give us their best shot. They were a desperate team. … Any athlete that has any self pride is not going to want to get beat by a team every time you play them.”

As I indicated during the preview article for this series, Nuggets guard Ty Lawson did indeed take center stage.  He scored 27 points, and Gallinari pitched in 18 second half points.

“The mood’s good right now.  We got the monkey off our back and put it on theirs,” Lawson commented.  “So, we’ll try to put a little pressure on them with a good game here and go back home.”

The only other game that Westbrook took more than 25 shots in was one without teammate Kevin Durant.  There’s a point when having a shoot first point guard can go too far, and Westbrook is pushing that envelope very hard.  Brooks also criticized Westbrook’s shot selection, saying he is not getting to the basket enough and is settling for too many jumpers.

Brooks more than anything, however, is preaching defense.  The Nuggets are a fast paced high scoring team and OKC has held them under 95 points in 4 of the 6 meetings over the last month, and two of the games were under 90.  Denver shot an average of 44.5 free throws over the last two games of the series.

Brooks commented on the problem saying, “I’ve always felt if you’re a good defensive team, you’re not fouling as much.”

Karl shrugged off Wilson Chandler’s poor performance and said that he “[thinks] we have to be ready for that (poor shooting nights).”

Some betting trends:

Denver is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games. The total has gone UNDER In 10 of Denver’s last 14 road games and the Nuggets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.  The total has gone UNDER In 5 of Denver’s last 7 games against the Thunder, and the Nuggets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 against the Thunder.  Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against OKC.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games on the road in OKC and it has also gone OVER in 8 of Denver’s last 12 games on the road in OKC.  Denver is 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games against the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER In 4 of OKC’s last 6 home games.  OKC is 8-1 SU in their last 9 at home and the Thunder are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home.  The total has gone UNDER n 5 of OKC’s last 7 games against the Nuggets and the Thunder are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Denver.  Oklahoma City is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Nuggets while OKC is also 5-1 SU in their last 6 home games against Denver.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 at home against the Nuggets and it has gone OVER In 8 of the 12 last home games against the Nuggets.

There’s really no reason that Oklahoma City shouldn’t close this out tonight on their home court.  They know they want to avoid a game 6 which could spur an ugly scenario, though no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, and it’s doubtful Denver could do that.