NBA Playoffs Western Conference Quarterfinals
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs #7 New Orleans Hornets
Best of seven series, format 2-2-1-1-1
Sunday, April 17-Saturday, April 30, 2011
Series Price: LAL -2100 / NOH +1250 (odds courtesy of bookmaker)
Game #1 Opening Line: Lakers – 9 1/2
Game #1 Current Line: Lakers -10
Game #1 Opening Total: 185
Game #1 Current Total: 182 1/2
Game #1 Money Line: Lakers -725 / Hornets +500
The Lakers are the 2 time defending NBA champions. They finished tied for second in the West with Dallas with a 57-25 record. After the All-Star break the Lakers went on an 18-1 tear and it looked like they were getting back into championship form. However, the Lakers then went on a 5 game losing streak, and the doubts began to creep in again. They closed with wins at home against San Antonio who rested their starters and at Sacramento who was playing out the string. New Orleans finished tied with Memphis at 46-36 for the 7th spot in the West. They lost 3 straight games to close out the regular season.
The Lakers swept the regular season series against the Hornets 4-0. They won 103-88 in New Orleans December 29, 101-97 in LA January 7, 101-95 in New Orleans February 5, and in LA 102-84 March 27th. The Lakers are 9-2 straight up vs the Hornets the last 3 years but only 6-5 ATS in those games. The over is 7-4 in those games. The Hornets are 112-135 ATS in all games the last 3 seasons, including 15-32 in road games revenging a loss in the same span. The Hornets are 18-27 ATS this season versus teams scoring more than 99 points a game. The Lakers are 13-4 ATS after 3 consecutive overs the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 84-101 in all games the last 2 seasons, including 72-86 as a favorite. LA is 15-26 ATS in home games this season.
Hornets Forward David West is out for the season with a knee injury. He was the team’s leading scorer with 18.9 points a game. He also averaged 7.6 rebounds. All-Star Point Guard Chris Paul averages 15.9 points, and leads the team in assists with 9.8 and steals with 2.4 a game. Emeka Okafor leads the team in rebounds with 9.5 a game and blocks with 1.8 a game, and scores 10.3 points a game. Carl Landry (11.8), Trevor Ariza (11) and Marco Belinelli (10.5) also score in double digit figures. The Hornets are outscoring opponents 95-94 on the season. The Hornets are 27th in points scored and 5th in points allowed. New Orleans shoots 45.9% from the field and 36% from 3-point range. Hornet opponents are shooting 45.7% from the field. The Hornets shoot 76.5% from the free throw line. New Orleans averages 40.1 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +0.8. They are 24th in rebounding. They average 20.6 assists and 13 turnovers a game. They are 21st in assists. The Hornets force 14.5 turnovers a game on defense. New Orleans average 7.6 steals and 4.4 blocks a game.
The Lakers have a slew of injuries right now. Point Guard Steve Blake (illness) and forward Devin Ebanks (leg) are both out indefinitely. More importantly, Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes are all probable with knee injuries. The Lakers are of course led by future Hall-of-Famer Kobe Bryant. He is averaging 25.3 points and 4.7 assists a game. He leads the team in both categories. Pau Gasol averages 18.8 points and leads the team in rebounds with 10.2 a game. Lamar Odom will likely win the NBA’s sixth man award and averages 14.4 points. Bynum averages 11.3 points and leads the team in blocks with 2 a game. Artest leads them in steals with 1.5 a game. The Lakers are outscoring opponents 102-95 on the season. They are 8th in points scored and 9th in points allowed. The Lakers are shooting 46.3% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. L.A. opponents are shooting 43.7% from the field. The Lakers make 77.9% of their free throws. They average 44 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +2.5. Theya re 4th in the league in rebounding. The Lakers average 22 assists and 13.1 turnovers a game. They are 13th in assists per game. LA forces 13.6 turnovers a game on defense. The Lakers average 7.3 steals and 5.2 blocks a game.
This series reminds me of the Celtics and Heat series from last year before LeBron and Chris Bosh brought their talents to South Beach. It was basically Dwayne Wade versus the Celtics. Just through pure talent and grit Dwayne Wade willed the Heat to a a game four victory to avoid the sweep. Chris Paul is almost a one man team taking on the Lakers. Yes, Paul is a very talented player and arguably the NBA’s best point guard. However, without David West, the Hornets are just not as dangerous. The Hornets will probably win one game in the series. The only way the Hornets even make this a series is if the Lakers get bored and lose motivation for some reason as they have done for parts of the season. Of course, the playoffs are a different story and I don’t think Kobe Bryant or Phil Jackson will allow the Lakers to nod off. One thing to keep in mind is the Lakers do not have the depth of their previous championship teams and the injuries don’t help matters. It won’t matter against the Hornets but could be a factor as the Lakers advance to play the elite teams in the West.
SERIES PREDICTION: LAKERS IN FIVE (-2100, AT BOOKMAKER)
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