Cincinnati Reds (5-2) AT Arizona Diamondbacks (3-3)
April 9, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Runline: CIN -1.5 +145; ARI +1.5 -165
Current Runline: CIN -1.5 +155; ARI +1.5 -175
Opening Moneyline: CIN -120, ARI +100
Current Moneyline: EVEN
Opening Total: 9
Current Total: 8.5
SP: CIN- B. Arroyo; ARI- D. Hudson
Cincinnati started the season 5-0 and persisted to be the last team in the NL that had an undefeated record. Since that start, they have went on to lose two straight, one to the Astros and another here in Arizona, but they still sit half a game ahead of Pittsburgh (really?) for the lead in the NL Central.
Arizona is coming off a very impressive 13-2 romping of the Reds yesterday. Three Diamondback players (Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, and Chris Young) homered off Reds’ relief pitcher Matt Maloney. The Diamondbacks also finished the game with a season high 13 hits.
“It was a great atmosphere,” Diamondbacks Manager Kirk Gibson said. “You wish they could all be this way but it doesn’t happen. We know we’re in for a big fight (tomorrow).”
Arizona’s starter Daniel Hudson was very impressive down the stretch last season. He went 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA after being acquired from the White Sox. His lone loss, however, was to the Reds on August 17th. Hudson received the loss for his last outing, despite pitching a decent game. He gave up only 3 runs in 6 innings. His PECOTA projections for the season are for a 10-7 record with a 3.80 ERA. In 8 of his first 9 seasons in the league he has held his ERA under 3.50, so a 3.80 projection does seem a bit on the high side, but we’ll trust Baseball Prospectus’ superior analysis.
Cincinnati is sending Bronson Arroyo to the mound again. He received a victory for his first outing this season despite being very sick with mononucleosis. He is probable for today’s game, but could be a last minute scratch. Last game against Milwaukee, Arroyo threw 65 of his 87 pitches for strikes, or 74.7%. “He’s in good shape. He knows how to pace himself and knows his body, probably as well as anybody I’ve had,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He takes pride in winning, innings pitched and going deep in ballgames.” Arroyo also went 2-0 against Arizona last season in 2 starts, logging an impressive 2.70 ERA. Arroyo is known for pitching deep in games, so tonight might represent a rest for the Cincinnati bullpen. Arroyo’s PECOTA projections are a 13-12 record with a 4.31 ERA.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games and the Reds are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games. Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in their last 7 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in their last 7 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 against Arizona. Cincinnati is 12-4 SU in their last 16 against the Diamondbacks and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games on the road against Arizona. Cincinnati is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road in Arizona. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Reds’ 19 games on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Diamondbacks’ last 6 games and Arizona is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games. Arizona is 7-1 SU in their last 8 at home and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 against the Reds. Arizona is 4-12 SU in their last 16 against the Reds and they are 1-8 SU in their last 9 against Cincinnati at home. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Reds’ last 19 games at home against the Reds and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the Diamondbacks’ last 6 games at home against the Reds.
ARIZONA HOT BATTERS:
– Brandon Phillips (.393, 5 RBIs)
– Joey Votto (.407, 2 HR, 5 RBIs)
CINCINNATI HOT BATTERS:
– Miguel Montero (.545, 2 HR, 4 RBI)
– Justin Upton (.231, 2 HR, 5 RBI)
Given Bronson Arroyo’s success with the Diamondbacks, it’s hard to imagine Cincinnati losing this game, despite the even odds, since the initial shift.
