Florida Marlins (3-3) AT Houston Astros (1-5)
April 8, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Runline: FLA -1.5 +130, HOU +1.5 -150
Current Runline: FLA -1.5 +145, HOU +1.5 -165
Opening Moneyline: Fla -130 / Hou +110
Current Moneyline: Fla -111 / Hou +101
Opening Total: 8
Current Total: 8
SP: FLA- R. Nolasco; HOU- W. Rodriguez
This game represents Houston’s home opener, and for a team that is 1-5, they probably couldn’t be any happier, coming off a surprise victory in Cincinnati against the Reds, handing the Reds their first loss of the 2011 season. Tonight will be the first game in a 10 game home stand, a time period the Astros hope will enable them to propel to the top of the standings, or at least to respectability, something the Astros have lacked in years’ past.
“It’s going to be nice to go home and get into a routine at home,” Astros manager Brad Mills commented. “Being there for 10 games will be nice. And obviously, we want to play well at home and start off by playing good, consistent baseball.”
Don’t let the positive sentiment dissuade you from seeing how bad the Astros have been, however. Through their first 6 games they are hitting just .219, while scoring only 13 runs in 5 games (2.6 per game). Moreover, the pitching and defense has been lackluster, giving up 37 runs through those 6 games, making it difficult for the Astros to win, barring an offensive explosion from a team without much firepower.
Starter Wandy Rodriguez got off to a rough start. He lasted only 4 innings and gave up 7 runs and 9 hits. The lefty will be well suited against the Houston lineup, however, as the Astros struggle with lefties (and righties for that matter). “He’s definitely much farther ahead than he was last year at this same time,” Mills said of Rodriguez. Wandy Rodriguez’ PECOTA projections project a 12-9 record with a 3.87 ERA. The ERA is a .27 regression, but the win total is expected to be better since the Astros hitting has improved.
Ricky Nolasco got off to a hot start for the Marlins, despite not recording a decision. He’ll take his 0-0 record to the mound again, armed with a 2.57 ERA, an average that should allow for victory given at least a little offensive production from the Marlins. He missed the last month of 2010 with a torn meniscus in his knee, but appears to have rebounded just fine from the minor injury. Astros’ right fielder Hunter Pence has had good success against Nolasco and has jacked 3 homers in 10 at bats against him. Also working against the Marlins is the fact that Houston has won 12 of 16 at home against the Marlins.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s past 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 on the road. Florida is 1-6 SU in their last 7 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 games against the Astros. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida’s last 8 games against the Astros on the road. Florida is 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games against the Astros.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games and the Astros are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games. The Astros are also 15-8 SU in their last 23 games at home. The total also has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games against Florida. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games against the Marlins at home. Houston is 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games against the Florida Marlins.
If Wandy Rodriguez can come into the game and pitch as has been expected from him, the Astros should win this game. However, Nolasco has pitched the Astros lineup tough and if he can avoid putting runners on base when his arch nemesis Hunter Pence steps to the plate, then Florida could win this game, as they are favored to.
