New York Mets AT Philadelphia Phillies
April 7, 2011 at 3:05 PM EST
Opening Runline: +1.5 -105 NYM / -1.5 -115 PHI
Current Runline: +1.5 -125 NYM / -1.5 +105 PHI
Opening Moneyline: PHI -245 / NYM +205
Current Moneyline: PHI +183 / NYM -193
Opening Total: 7.5
Current Total: 7.5
NYM SP- JONATHON NIESE (L) ERA: 2.57 W/L: 0-0
PHI SP- ROY HALLADAY (R) ERA: 1.50 W/L: 0-0
The Mets are solid and tangible proof that spending money does not necessarily ensure victories and post season appearances. Former GM Omar Minaya spent money judiciously on players that were playing well and worth a lot, but were not by any means bargains, nor the type of players that would ensure the franchise’s continued success, given the age of the players. These players of course were second stinters Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez and free agent signees such as Francisco Rodriguez, who is signed for far too much and far too long than he should be.
For all Minaya did, there’s really only two acquisitions that made sense and were solid moves – the acquisition of Johan Santana and the trade for Carlos Delgado. Both were and still are top talents in baseball, but the team’s inferior coaching led to a number of odd scenarios, especially in the scripted batting order which did not feature an order that made sense, but rather one scripted by position. Manager Jerry Manuel was just employing a system that made little to no sense, and probably doing it out of “tradition,” or the way he believed a manager should coach.
The Mets have done just about everything the could to mold their team to their home stadium, and they have failed miserably. Despite having a lineup that could produce a lot of run production through home runs, management has no intention to move in the long fences and the team’s poor fielding doesn’t play to their advantage either given the fact they play in a pitcher’s ball park.
For a team that came up short in the NLCS, things probably couldn’t be any bleaker than they aer for the Phillies. They have the oldest team in baseball. Their 31.8 year age average for the lineup and 31.1 year age average for the pitching staff are the highest in baseball, by a relatively decent margin.
That’s not to say scouting director Chuck LaMar has done a bad job at the minor league level, though. LaMar tends to draft athleticism over coordinated talent, but it has worked out well so far and they have five solid prospects (Johnathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, Jesse Biddle and Jiwan James) that could all end up bringing big contributions, but for right now the Phillies must focus primarily on winning with their aging lineup that they have, while slowly filtering in the youngsters over the next few years.
The real problem for the Phillies is that after 2012, Ryan Howard begins making in excess of $25 million and Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels become free agents. At that point, Philadelphia will have the funds to re-sign them, but it will definitely push the pay roll towards the high end of the spectrum that they can afford. With an extremely supportive fan base, they have sold out 123 home games in a row and enthusiasm is high.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Mets’ last 5 games and the total has goen OVER in 5 of their last 6 on the road. The Mets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 on the road and they are 6-13 SU in their last 19 games against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 at home and they are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games at home against the New York Mets.
The line has inexplicably shifted into the Mets’ favor. Philadelphia is a superior team though so it’s a bit perplexing to say the least.
