Houston Astros (0-3) AT Cincinnati Reds (3-0)
April 5, 2011 at 6:35 PM EST
SP: Houston – J. Happ; Cincinnati – M. Leake
Runline: Cin -1.5
Opening Moneyline: Cin -165 / Hou +145
Current Moneyline: Cin -155 / Hou +145
Opening Total: 8.5
Current Total: 8.5
The Astros and Reds have had opposite fortunes through their respective first series this season. The Reds swept the division rival Brewers 3 games to none, while the Astros were swept by the Phillies. The quick start by the Reds will give them an early heads up on their NL Central rivals. If they win today, it would be the first 4-0 start since 1990, a year in which the Reds won the World Series – their last World Series in fact.
“Whoever we play against, it’s very important,” Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips said. “We’ve got to try to get as many wins as possible because we’re not trying to wait until the last minute to try to clinch something. Of course, it’s important to beat teams in our division.”
Phillips is off to a quick start. He hit 3 of 6 on Sunday against the Brewers, including a 3 run homer. Teammate Ryan Hanigan also went wild, hitting 4 of 4 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs. Manager Dusty Baker remarked on the team effort, commenting that “everybody contributed.” And indeed, if everyone continues to contribute the Reds could open up a large lead on the Division Rivals and make a strong run at a pennant.
It bodes well for 23 year old starting pitcher Mike Leake. Leake went 8-4 in 2010, posting a 4.23 ERA. He’s only the 21st player since the draft began in 1965 to go straight to the majors from college (only the 15th pitcher). It proved to be a wise move for the Reds as he won his first five games before going only 3-4 to close out the season, but Leake had a 2.33 ERA in three starts against the Astros. His PECOTA projections predict an 8-9 season for Leake with a projected ERA of 4.88. Also to his credit, Leake can hit. He batted .299 in college and even had a 2.89 TaV (total value above replacement) from the plate in 2010.
Astros opposing pitcher J.A. Happ did not face the Reds last season, and had a non decision in a 3-4 loss to the Reds in 2009. Happ’s PECOTA lies out a 10-9 season with a prjoected ERA of 4.35. He’s not a great pitcher with career averages of 6.8 strikeouts, 3.8 walks, and 1.1 home runs per 9 innings. Somehow, amazingly, however, he posted an ERA under 4 in all 5 of his first 5 seasons, suggesting that he has mostly been a case of extreme fortune. His .273 BABIP will eventually transpire into his record and the 10-9 projection seems to be about right for a very average pitcher.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games and the Astros are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 on the road and the Astros are 1-7 SU in their last 8 on the road. Houston is also 6-19 SU in their last 25 against the Reds while Houston is 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games against the Reds.
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cincinnati’s last 25 games at home and they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 at home. Cincinnati is 19-6 SU in their last 25 games against Houston and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 at home against the Houston Astros.
Leake is the superior pitcher in this battle and the Reds are the superior team. It would be shocking if the Astros found a way to pull out a victory against the victory hungry Reds.
