NCAA Tournament West Region Second Round
#4 Texas Longhorns vs #13 Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa, OK
Friday, March 18, 2011, 12:15 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Texas -11
Current Line: Texas -10
Opening Total: 153
Current Total: 154
Money Line: Texas -550 / Oakland +450
Until about 2 weeks ago the Texas Longhorns were in line to be a number 1 seed in this tournament. However a stretch where lost 3 out of 4 near the end of the regular season dropped them out of the number 1 line. I think even if they had beaten Kansas in the Big 12 Championship last week they would have been at least a 2 seed. The Longhorns fell all the way to a 4 seed with the 85-73 loss to the Jayhawks Saturday. Texas is 27-7 overall and finished second in the Big 12 at 13-3. The selection committee also did the Longhorns no favor by scheduling them against the #13 seed Oakland Golden Grizzlies, champions of the Summit League. The Grizzlies finished the regular season 25-9 and 17-1 in Conference play. Oakland has won 8 straight games including a 90-76 win over Oral Roberts in the Summit Championship game last week. Though Oakland plays in the low-profile Summit League and not a lot of their games are on television, they are a very good and deep team that can score in bunches. The winner of this game will take on the winner of Arizona and Memphis in the third round.
This is the first ever meeting between the two schools. Oakland is 1-6 against tournament teams with the only win coming over Tennessee. Oakland played a tough schedule with losses to West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Michigan, and Ohio St. All were on the road except Michigan St, whom the Grizzlies lost to by one point. Texas was 8-5 against tournament teams including wins over Illinois, Michigan St, North Carolina, Kansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M 3 times. Texas is 20-9 ATS in all games this season, including 15-8 as a favorite, and 15-7 against teams with winning records. Texas is 23-12 ATS versus non-conference teams the last 3 seasons. Oakland is 21-10 ATS in all games this season, including 6-0 in neutral site games, 15-4 after a conference win, and 10-3 on the road against teams with winning records.
Oakland has no significant injuries right now. The Grizzlies are led by center Keith Benson who averages 18 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 3.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds and blocks. He is second in the country in blocks per game. Benson is also 9-22 from 3-point range, so he is a dangerous all around weapon. Guard Reggie Hamilton averages 17.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. He leads the team in assists and steals. Forward Will Hudson averages 12.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1 block a game. Guard Travis Bader averages 10.5 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. Oakland is outscoring opponents 86-77 on the season. The Grizzlies are shooting 49.4% from the field and 37.9% from 3-point range. Oakland opponents are shooting 44.3% from the field. The Grizzlies make 72% of their free throws. Oakland averages 39 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +5.2. The Grizzlies average 16.4 assists and 13.7 turnovers. Oakland forces 12.2 turnovers a game on defense. The Grizzlies average 6.1 steals and 5.7 blocks a game.
Texas has no significant injuries right now. Texas is led by guard/forward Jordan Hamilton. Hamilton is averaging 18.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. He is the leading scorer for the Longhorns and also is shooting 38.8% from 3-point range. Forward Tristan Thompson averages 13.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1 steal, and 2.2 blocks a game. He leads the team in rebounding and blocks. Forward Gary Johnson averages 11.5 points, 7 rebounds and 1.2 assists a game. Guard Cory Joseph averages 10.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game to lead the team. Texas is outscoring opponents 75-61 on the season. They are shooting 45.4% from the field and 37.7% from 3-point range. Longhorn opponents are shooting 38.3% from the field. Texas makes only 64.5% of their free throws. Texas averages 40.5 rebounds and has a rebounding margin of +6.6. The Longhorns average 13.5 assists and 11.8 turnovers a game. Texas forces 13 turnovers a game on defense. Texas averages 4.9 blocks and 5.8 steals a game.
The main reason Texas struggled down the stretch was they stopped scoring as much. They went 4-4 in their last 8 games and in scored on 72 points a game in those 8 games compared to 75 points a game for the season. Those numbers a little skewed because they scored 89 against Colorado in a loss. Texas scored more than 75 points in 10 of their 15 non conference games but have only scored more than 75 in 5 conference games. Oakland can score and rebound very well. They have the skills to pull off the upset, but I think Texas survives a close game but doesn’t cover.
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