Houston Rocketst AT Memphis Grizzlies
Jan 21, 2011 at 8 PM EST
Opening Line: Memphis -4.5
Current Line: Memphis -4.0
Opening Total: 202.5
Current Total: 204
Opening Moneyline: Hou -165 / Mem +145
Current Moneyline: Hou -165 / Mem +145
Tonight’s game is of utmost importance to both teams as they fight it out for the 8th seed in the Western Conference, both teams a tad behind Portland for the right to play what would be the Spurs if the NBA Playoffs started today.
For two teams so tight in the standings, the Rockets have owned the Grizzlies lately and have won the last 7 meetings between the teams. Scola is both looking at this game and a bit ahead to Saturday night’s matchup with the Orlando Magic. “We want to take it to four straight wins and then we can think about Orlando,” Rockets forward Luis Scola told the Rockets’ official website. “It’s going to be a tough back-to-back but we need both games. We need go out there in Memphis and do a good job. We beat them the two times we played them, they’ll be ready to play us too.”
Over those last 7 games that the Rockets have won against the Grizzlies, they’ve done it by an average of 15.5 points, making it somewhat odd that NBA oddsmakers have set them as underdogs to the struggling Grizzlies.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games. They are 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 games and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Grizzlies. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 against the Grizzlies. The total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against Memphis. They are 4-2 SU in their last 6 road games against the Grizzlies.
Memphis is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and 4-1 SU in their past 5 home games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 7 meetings between the teams. Memphis is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Rockets. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against Houston and 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games between the teams.
Key Matchups:
Luis Scola vs. Zach Randolph
Both these power forwards are having excellent seasons. After a strong campaign last year, many questioned whether Randolph could do it again. And he’s done even better. With averages of 20 points per game and 13 rebounds a game, Randolph looks like a good shot to make his second consecutive all star appearance, and it’s possible his counterpart in tonight’s game, Luis Scola, does the same. Scola isn’t rebounding with quite the gusto Randolph is, with only 8.4 rebounds per game, but he’s scoring nearly as much with 19.2 a game. He’s averaged 17.3 points per game over the three game winning streak that the Rockets are riding and he has 23 points and 9 boards last game against Memphis. Both forwards will give each other fits on offense, as they are both much better scorers than defenders. Expect both to have big games tonight.
Kevin Martin vs. Sam Young & OJ Mayo
Martin is Houston’s leading scorer, but Sam Young is a strong defender whose athleticism should enable him to keep Martin in front of him on defense. Martin will still find a way to get his though. He’s a great three point shooter and when he can beat Young off the dribble he’ll find his way to the free throw line quite often, where he averages 8.6 free throws per game. When Young goes to the bench, however, Martin may have his problems with Mayo. Mayo is not having a good year and has been demoted to the bench but he is still capable of big scoring nights. Last game against the Grizzlies, however, he managed just 6 points in 19 minutes. He’s having by far the worst year of his three year NBA career, shooting barely 40% from the floor and averaging 5 points less per game than last year.
It’s very difficult to understand how the Rockets could be underdogs in tonight’s game. They have dominated the Grizzlies and are hot right now. I strongly advocate a bet on the Rockets covering tonight’s spread.
