Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic
January 5th, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line: Orlando -11.5
Current Line: Orlando -12.5
Opening Total: 188
Current Total: 191
Moneyline: Orlando -1200 /Milwaukee +800
Some writers have argued that the Magic are even hotter than Miami. Given the fact that over the last 8 games they rank 1st in the NBA in FG% allowed and 2nd in point differential, it’s easy to see why one could think so. Moreover, that stretch INCLUDES the first two games after the trade when they were somewhat disoriented after bringing in 4 new players.
Hedo Turkoglu just came off his 3rd career triple double and has played excellent since coming back home. His numbers rival his 08-09 year when he was mysteriously snubbed of an all star selection, just because the Magic already had 3 other all stars. The Magic received good word about Brandon Bass’ knee and he appears good to go — at least for now. He and 3rd year forward Ryan Anderson have stepped up to prove the Magic have legitimate young starters developing at the power forward position.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been playing without arguably their best player in 2nd year point guard Brandon Jennings who is out up to four weeks with a foot injury. They are also without Carlos Delfino, who suffered some long lasting form of a concussion and also without Drew Gooden, who is also suffering from a foot injury. It goes without saying that they are also withotu Michael Redd, whose once promising career now appears to be over.
Some betting trends:
Milwaukee has dropped 6 of their past 9 and 9 of their past 12 on the road. They have lost 7 of the last 9 in Orlando and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against the Magic. They have dropped their last 5, as well, in Orlando.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando’s last 7 games and they have won 4 of their last 5 at home.
Key Matchup:
Andrew Bogut vs. Dwight Howard
Bogut’s numbers have fallen off since last year, a little, something he attributes to the severe elbow injury he suffered last year. He says he’s still not at 100%, but an 80% healthy Bogut is still better than most centers in the league and he is averaging 13.6 points per game and a career high 11.3 rebounds per night. It shows probably most in his field goal percentage, as this is the first year of his career he has been below 50% from the floor and it is showing up big time on his free throws, where he is shooting 14.5% lower than his career average at a dreadful 44.2%. Even Dwight Howard, who is constantly maligned for his poor free throw shooting is shooting worlds better than Bogut. Last game against the Magic, however, Bogut had a stellar game, going for 31 points, 18 boards, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. It’s worth mentioning, however, that in that game he did not face Dwight Howard, but rather then-backup center Marcin Gortat, who has since been dealt to the Phoenix Suns. Last year, actually against Howard, he managed only 10 points and is only averaging 9.6 points per game for his career against the Magic, so he does have his problems scoring on Dwight. Howard has a huge atleticism advantage against Bogut (as he does with most centers), but Bogut is the league’s leading shot blocker with 2.8 a game, so he may have the length and timing to frustrate Howard at times.
Tonight’s game is not predicted to be close by NBA oddsmakers. Orlando has been on fire and 13-5 at home this year in their new arena. While Milwaukee has been competitive of late, it is highly dubious as to whether they can contain Orlando and cover this now 12.5 point spread (it was 11.5 opening as you can see).
