Houston Rockets AT Dallas Mavericks
Monday, 29 November, 8:35 EST
Current Betting Line: Dallas Mavs -9
Current total: 199
Current Moneyline: Dallas -600 / Houston +400
Dallas enters this game red hot and on fire, riding a 5 game winning streak and having won 8 of their last 10. They are 6-3 at home and the Rockets are a miserable 2-7 on the road. Houston has also lost 6 of their last 10 games. Last game for Dallas, they dispatched the Heat in Dallas, winning the game by 11 points. Despite 20+ point games for all of Miami’s big three, Dallas was able to prevail behind big games by Caron Butler and Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 23 and 22, respectively. Before the win against Miami, Dallas beat another top team, the Spurs, in San Antonio, by 9 points. Dallas is 2 games behind San Antonio for the best record in the Western Conference.
Houston is coming off of back to back games against the Bobcats, with each team winning on their homecourt. Scola has been very impressive, averaging 20.9 ppg and 9.3 rpg and has taken charge of a Rockets team that is once again without Yao Ming. Aaron Brooks also has been injured and Kyle Lowry has done a decent job stepping up into the starting role (8.4 ppg and 6.5 apg).
Houston is averaging 104.4 ppg and opponents are averaging 106.7 against the Rockets. Dallas, meanwhile is averaging 97.6 ppg and opponents are averaging 92.7, so the game is a matchup of opposing styles: Houston’s run and gun offense versus Dallas’ slow it down approach. As to which pace prevails, that will determine whether the total goes over or under obviously. Since the game is in Dallas and Dallas is a superior team, it could be expected that the pace takes on a Dallas-like tone, but there is also the blowout factor, as this game might not be close at all.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games, and Dallas is 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games at home. The total has also gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games when playing at home against the Rockets.
Some of the key matchups to watch in tonight’s game:
Luis Scola vs. Dirk Nowitzki
This is the key matchup of the game. Scola is Houston’s second leading scorer (behind Kevin Martin) and Dallas is led by Dirk every year. Neither are particularly great defenders and it can be expected that both have big offensive games tonight. Dirk has stepped it up slightly this year over past seasons, shooting 54% from the floor compared to his career average of 47.4% His scoring average is up to 26.1, 3.1 higher than his career average, as well. Last game against Houston, December 19th 2009, Dirk was injured and only played 10 minutes, as he received a hit to the mouth from then-Rocket Carl Landry. Scola had a big game that night, going for 19 pts and 10 boards. Both forwards will take each other outside and shoot a lot of jumpers and the defense will probably be pretty lax. Expect Dirk to score near 30 or more, and Scola to get his season average at least.
Kyle Lowry vs. Jason Kidd
Lowry has been impressive in the absense of Aaron Brooks and last game against Dallas, he went off for 26 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds, and 5 steals. Kidd also had a big game, with a near triple double – 8pts, 10 asts, 11 rebounds. Kidd’s shooting has been very poor this year and he enters the game shooting 36.4% from the floor. His three point shooting is as good as his field goal percentage, also 36.4% and over half his shot attempts have been threes. Lowry has been playing close to 40 minutes a game and is getting close to triple doubles recently. Much like the power forward matchup, expect both point guards to put up big numbers. Both are excellent at playing passing lanes, as well, and will ignite a lot of fast breaks.
The Rockets definitely have their work cut out for them tonight and will have a tough time against the red hot Mavs. Look for Houston to try to push the pace and score some easy baskets to have any chance against Dallas tonight, who will look to slow the pace into a half court crawl and feed Nowitzki in the high post all night.
