The Seminoles opened as 6 point road favorites, but the sharps have been backing the Terrapins in a big way. Despite the public playing FSU at nearly 2:1, the line has been yanked down to 3 ½ or 4 points, depending upon the site. With the public going one direction and the line moving the other, that reverse action is an indication that the wiseguys are playing Maryland at home. Consider following the lead of the professionals and grabbing as many points as you can with the hungry home team.
Maryland’s 2009 football season was an absolute disaster. After finishing 2-10, many people wondered if Ralph Friedgen would be shown the door. But the big guy got another opportunity to work his magic and the results have been impressive. This year, Maryland already has five more wins than last season and is bowling. With some good play and a little luck, they could wind up in a BCS bowl.
The Terps have been playing solid football in recent weeks. In their last four games, Maryland is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. Their one loss came at Miami. They led for the vast majority of the game, and with about a minute left, the ‘Canes hit a long pass for the go ahead score. Other than that, the Terps have been playing lights out.
And they’ve been balanced, too. In that four game stretch, Maryland has been averaging about 135 yards per game on the ground and just under 200 yards through the air. On top of that, the defense has been playing inspired football. Led by some great linebackers, the D has given up over 100 yards rushing just once in that stretch (Miami), while still keeping all opponents under 300 yards passing. It’s also worth mentioning that three of those four games were on the road, which gives more credibility to the Terps’ collective efforts.
Florida State has fallen off the table in recent weeks. In their past four games, FSU is 2-2 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, and three of those four games were in Tallahassee. Interestingly, the defense has yielded more than 150 yards rushing in three of those four games. That’s interesting because Maryland loves to get the job done on the ground. Also keep in mind that Christian Ponder missed last week’s game with a bad elbow, though he should be able to play this week. Regardless, Ponder won’t be 100% and that could make a big difference.
Bettors will be interested to know that since 1992, Florida State is 4-12 against the spread as a road favorite between 3 ½ and 7 points. Also, over the past three seasons they’re 3-10 ats coming off a straight up victory against a conference rival. Over the past three seasons, Maryland is 12-9 ats as an underdog and 9-7 ats at home. Last season, FSU won in Tallahassee, 29-26 as a 16 ½ point favorite. Consider fading the public and following the wiseguys in this match up. They look to be the play to pay.
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