The Beavers opened as 4 point favorites, but the line has slipped down to 2 ½ or 3 points. The squares are hitting OSU at about 3:1, which means this has some reverse action on it. But the wiseguys are actually giving some nice value in this contest. Cal is a terrible road team, and backing the Beavers at less than a field goal is a value play.
The technical numbers point to Oregon State. Over the past three seasons, against the spread, the Beavers are a shocking 16-5 against conference opponents, 9-1 in October, 10-3 against teams with a winning record, and 14-8 on turf. Regarding Cal, they are a decent 13-9 against conference opponents, 5-5 in October, but only 2-4 on turf. Additionally, the Bears are 0-2 as a road underdog of 3 points or less and 4-9 since 1992.
California is known for being a great home team, but a lousy road team. This year is no exception. They’re 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ats on the road. Their one cover came in a one point loss at Arizona, during which the defense played exceptionally well. But in their other two road games – at Nevada and USC – Cal was thrashed. The defense gave up an average of about 550 yards, 50 points per game, and missed the spread by a combined 55 ½ points. The question is, which Cal team will show up? Given the way Oregon State has played the spread against conference teams, there’s a better chance the underachieving Bears will take the field.
Also consider the way Cal has come off straight up wins. They’re 4-8 ats over the past 3 seasons, and this year they’re 1-2 with the one cover coming after beating FCS school, Cal Davis. The Golden Bears are awesome off a loss; they’re 3-0 this year. But they’re coming off a big home win against Arizona State, which is the type of game that has led to trouble for Cal.
Even without James Rodgers, the Beavers still have his brother Jacquizz. The younger brother has been a workhorse, and he’ll need to have a big game this Saturday. Quarterback Ryan Katz had a tough game against Washington, but he was the main reason the Beavers upset Arizona in Tucson.
Don’t forget that Oregon State has played maybe the toughest schedule of any team in the country, which means they’re battle tested. They took on both TCU and Boise State out of conference, and they’ve played Arizona, Arizona State, and Washington in conference. In those 5 games, the Beavers are 5-0 ats.
Oregon State has been a thorn in the side of Cal the past two years. They won at Cal last year, 31-14, while they won at home the year before, 34-21. The Beavers outgained the Bears by over 100 yards in each contest.
Not having James Rodgers is a big loss, but that’s also why the line is as low as it is. Rodgers’ injury and sharp money have created decent value for Oregon State in this game. Considering how well the Beavers have played in conference, and with how poorly Cal has played on the road and after a straight up win, don’t be afraid to lay 2 ½ points. Back the Beavers.
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