Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Sunday, October 31, 2010, 1:00 pm EST, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Chiefs -9
Current Line: Chiefs -7.5
Opening Total: 43
Current Total: 46
Money Line: Chiefs -330 / Bills +270
The Buffalo Bills are the NFL’s lone remaining winless team at 0-6 and are expected to have a difficult time trying to end their skid on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) on Sunday. However, the Bills have won each of the past two years at Kansas City and have beaten the Chiefs three straight times dating back to 2005. The difference this year obviously is that KC (-7.5 on the pro football odds page) is leading the AFC West thanks to a 3-0 mark at home and coming off a 42-20 rout of Jacksonville there last week.
The Chiefs are also an impressive 5-1 against the spread this season and have dominated opponents at Arrowhead by an average of nearly 17 points. They crushed the Jaguars behind another monster performance from the running game, which accounted for 236 yards on 42 carries.
Much like last year with the Jets, Kansas City running back Thomas Jones leads the NFL’s top rushing attack. The team is averaging 176.5 yards per game on the ground thanks to Jones and third-year back Jamaal Charles, who is averaging six yards per carry and rushed for a game-high 143 yards against the Bills in a 16-10 home loss a year ago.
Buffalo did nothing special offensively in the last meeting but picked off Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel four times in the victory. Bills running back Fred Jackson rushed for 99 yards on 20 carries and caught three passes for 23 yards, and he has assumed the duties of starter this year following the trade of Marshawn Lynch to Seattle. Lynch rushed for 84 yards last year against Kansas City, but Jackson has gradually seen his carries increase over the last couple games since the deal.
Jackson totaled 73 rushing yards on 23 carries in a 37-34 overtime loss at Baltimore, but quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was the real story of that game. Fitzpatrick burned the Ravens secondary for a career-high 374 yards and four touchdowns, which is a far cry from the 86 yards he threw for against the Chiefs last year. The problem for the Bills was turnovers, as they committed four and fumbled in OT to set up Baltimore’s game-winning field goal.
Fitzpatrick has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of his last four games and might be able to find a weakness in KC’s pass defense, which is giving up 243.8 yards per game through the air this season. The Chiefs were able to take advantage of Jacksonville third-string quarterback Todd Bouman in the last game but struggled against Houston’s Matt Schaub the previous week in a 35-31 loss.
The OVER has cashed in the last four games for Buffalo and three of four for Kansas City. But the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the teams, with the lone OVER taking place in 2008 when the Bills routed the Chiefs, 54-31.
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