Looking back on the first round of the NFL draft last year, there were really only a few players that were relevant from the start of the season. Adrian Peterson was a star from the first snap, contributing more than 100 yards in his debut. He revolutionized the Minnesota running game, and changed how you had to look at the team. Joe Thomas was incredibly reliable right from the start, and his play was a big contributing factor to the success of Derek Anderson and the Browns’ offense. Patrick Willis stepped right into the San Francisco defense and played like the Pro Bowler he became. The Niners were truly lousy, but Willis made them significantly better than they otherwise would have been. Marshawn Lynch caught Denver off guard in the first week of the season, and added more than a thousand yards on the year. Calvin Johnson had two of his four best games of the year right out of the gate, and immediately improved the Lions’ passing game. Others put together decent years and some nice stats, but those are basically the ones that handicappers needed to compensate for right from the start of the season.
That made me think – which of the likely first rounders this year will hit the ground running and significantly impact the outcome of their team’s game from the start? It depends on the team that drafts them, of course, but here are five that strike me as possibilities:
Jake Long, OT, Michigan – Long is a left tackle, but he will possibly be moved to the right side in the pros. Wherever he plays he has the ability to step in and contribute immediately much like Thomas did last year. With the proviso that he ends up on a team that has a quarterback who has the potential to improve immediately if he is protected, Long will be able to help give a passer more time, and should have a quick and lasting impact on the stat sheet.
Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State – Of all the receivers that have first round potential Thomas may not end up being the best pro, but he has a very good chance of being the one who starts off best. There are couple of reasons for this – he has a great mix of size and speed, and he showed a great deal of improvement between his first and second years out of junior college. Most importantly, he excels more than any other receiver at the draft at catching short passes and gaining yards after the catch. He is likely to go high to a team that needs a good first or second passing option, and Thomas will mesh right away as a trustworthy short to mid option.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois – Just looking at this list so far makes me think that those that say I have a Big Ten bias might have a point. Regardless, I really like Mendenhall. He won’t be the first back off the board, but he can step in and start immediately for whoever takes him. He is shifty and very tough to tackle, and I think he should have a very solid rookie year. More importantly, he will go mid to late in the round, so he will end up with a team that is decent and can capitalize on his talents from the start. This is a ridiculously deep draft for runners, but Mendenhall is my choice as the early contributor. Darren McFadden may end up having a better career (maybe), but not in the first year.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal – I wouldn’t want my team to draft Jackson. His size and durability don’t make me believe he has a long career ahead of him. Regardless, I expect big things from him early in his career. That’s because of his versatility. He can be ridiculously dangerous as a kick returner, and he can fill any number of receiving roles. I think that opposing teams will figure him out eventually, but until they do he could make a splash.
Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt – As always, teams are valuing the immediate and lasting impact a strong tackle can have on the offense. After Long is off the board, others like Williams, Branden Albert of Virginia, Jeff Otah of Pittsburgh, and Ryan Clady of Boise State should all come off the board in the first half of the round. Of that group I like Williams best – Albert is a project because he is likely to be moved from guard to tackle, and I like the smarts Williams plays with and the competition he has faced playing in the SEC. If he ends up in front of a quarterback that is worth protecting than that QB should be improved right off the bat.
