#7 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #2 Boston Celtics
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 2018 at NOON CT
TV: ESPN
Spread: BOS -4
Total: 202.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The Boston Celtics will be without star point guard Kyrie Irving, and that could spell problems against a long, athletic Milwaukee Bucks team with plenty to prove.
Terry Rozier did an admirable job filling in for the injured Kyrie Irving coming down the stretch of the 2017-18 season, but things might be on the verge of “getting real” as the No. 2 seeded Boston Celtics square off against a healthy and surging Milwaukee Bucks team. Boston finished with a 27-14 mark at the TD Garden where it will be 4-point favorites in Game 1. If nothing else, the Celtics have homecourt advantage, but will that be enough of an edge against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks?
Milwaukee won six of its final 10 games, but it did finish with the only negative point differential amongst Eastern Conference playoff teams at -0.3. Boston reeled off an impressive season without Irving towards the end, and it spent 81 of the 82 games without its other major acquisition Gordon Hayward, who broke his ankle in the season opener.
Credit that persistence largely due to the emergence of rookie Jayson Tatum, who the Celtics will count on heavily in this series. Can the rook come through with a huge series, and if so, will even that be enough to beat a Bucks team that is firing on all cylinders? Let us take a look at the matchups in this series.
Backcourts: Terry Rozier/Jaylen Brown vs. Eric Bledsoe/Tony Snell
The Bucks acquired Eric Bledsoe midseason at the cost of Greg Monroe. He was superb. Bledsoe gave the Bucks the needed offensive punch that had been sorely lacking at the 1-spot, and his athleticism should be a huge factor in this backcourt matchup. All the same, Rozier played excellent basketball in his own right, and will keep the C’s in this series even without the explosive and experienced Irving guiding the show.
Tony Snell had a breakout season and is a lights-out three-point shooter, but Jaylen Brown is a better athlete and superior overall player. Both are stars on the defensive end, but Brown is capable of having big scoring nights, while Snell only has such once in a blue moon.
Advantage: Even
Frontcourts: Jayson Tatum/Al Horford/Aron Baynes vs. Khris Middleton/Giannis Antetokounmpo/John Henson
These are two very underrated frontcourts. From Tatum being one of the league’s best and most overshadowed rookies (due to Ben Simmons and Donovan Michell, no less) to Al Horford having career season from behind the arc and dishing the ball, the Celtics have a staunch 3/4 combo. And Aron Baynes is a rugged, strong defender, backed up by the aforementioned Monroe, who was signed after he was cut by the Phoenix Suns.
The Bucks meanwhile, have a league MVP candidate in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is nothing short of incredible and should been of the difference makers in this series. Khris Middleton is a borderline All-Star who finished second in the league in minutes played. Henson is a similar defensive cog like Baynes, and neither of the 5-men will function largely offensively in this series.
Even so, Antetokounmpo is the Bucks not-so-secret weapon and the player that shifts this entire series in its favor. He can do everything and is, unmistakably, a lot like a new age Magic Johnson who simply defends far better than the Lakers legend ever did. Some say, not in jest, that if Giannis adds a three-point shot he could be the best ever. That should kind of speak for itself, no?
Edge: Bucks
Benches:
The Celtics have some nice pieces coming off the bench. Monroe can score as well as any reserve 5 in the league, and Marcus Morris is a functional stretch-4 capable of starting on most teams. Marcus Smart is a Draymond Green-like defender as a guard, and Semi Ojeleye proved to be a valuable source of bench scoring coming down the stretch.
But what gives the Bucks an edge is its plethora of steady guards and Jabari Parker.
Parker spent the season recovering from a torn ACL, but returned strong down the stretch and should be starting at the 4-spot by the next round. Brandon Jennings, Jason Terry, and Malcolm Brogdon are a nice trio of scoring guards off the bench for Milwaukee too, and Brogdon is a key defensive component as he is consistent and solid on both ends of the court. Then Maker, too, is a strong defender whose length is unparalleled, and the Bucks second unit simply is a little deeper, plus having Parker should sway second and third quarters in Milwaukee’s favor. That will be a huge factor in giving Milwaukee the edge in this series.
Edge: Bucks
The Bottom Line:
The Celtics are an overrated No. 2 seed sans Irving. The team is still strong, but the Bucks are deep and talented. Milwaukee is really a much better team than its 44 wins indicate too. We like Milwaukee to upset the C’s in Round 1. Milwaukee struggled some on the road this season where it went just 19-23, but other than that, Milwaukee should be good to advance against a short-handed C’s club.
Prediction: Bucks in 6
