Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio
2014 Record: 3-13
Postseason: N/A
Odds to win Division: +3150
Odds to win Conference: +8500
Odds to win Super Bowl: +32500
Season Wins: Over 5 (-120), Under 5 (+100)
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The Oakland Raiders have gone 27-53 over the past five seasons, but this year has the potential to at least best the last three of those years.
The Oakland Raiders have a full season’s amount of wins—in the past three seasons, a meager 11 over that span. Even despite that horrid track record, owner Mark Davis has continued to support GM Reggie McKenzie as he tries to build something that resembles an NFL football team. This year may actually be a step towards that respectability that Raiders fans have felt elusive for about a few seasons since McKenzie dismantled the team following a near playoff berth in 2012.
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McKenzie’s saving grace really has been landing David Carr, but it will require a lot more brilliance than just Carr’s to right the ship. Adding LB Khalil Mack, WR Amari Cooper, LG Gabe Jackson and DT Justin Ellis begins to add a core that this team can build around. There is now some talent in place, and that comes with the expectation that Oakland at least gets a handful of wins. Oddsmakers at 5dimes concur, setting the O/U on Raiders wins at ‘5.’ It is a humble beginning to trying to climb back to respectability, but a beginning nevertheless.
The team has a new OC in Bill Musgrave and he is known for run-dominant offenses typically. That may change with Carr as his QB, and Musgrave started to shift his philosophies while in Philadelphia with Chip Kelly. The tempo will pick up and the offense should be fairly balanced this year between the rush and pass. It will be improved, most likely.
Carr was about the most fortunate thing this team could have asked for, snagging him in the second round and putting an end to the team’s desperate search for a QB. He may continue his ascent this year with another major breakthrough, and that could even render the Raiders better than expected. Behind him, the Raiders have capable talent in Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin, but Carr is undoubtedly the key to making this team relevant again. The QB position is Oakland’s strength and what can turn this team around.
In the backfield the Raiders finally decided Darren McFadden was never going to pan out. Instead, the team will turn to third-year back Latavius Murray while also trying to coax some productivity out of bust Trent Richardson and a versatile Washington product in Roy Helu.
Richardson has slimmed down to 220 pounds but has continued to look disappointing, and his career may be at its last stop if he cannot start to regain the form he had both in his rookie NFL season and at Alabama. Helu has missed practice since Aug. 3 and if he is not healthy and re-integrated, this team is lacking not only talent but depth.
Murray turned a lot of heads last year and is the main attraction in the backfield. He, like Carr, may have a major breakout this year. He was waiting in the wings behind Maurice Jones-Drew and McFadden, but now he is indisputably the No. 1 back and he has the talent to make it work.
At WR the Raiders needed to add some real talent to make the most of Carr’s arm. It did so, signing Michael Crabtree and drafting Amari Cooper. Crabtree came as a bargain and the Raiders are hoping it was able to capitalize on a talent that drew little interest in the free agent market. TE Mychal Rivera will be in for more looks now that teams will have to pay attention to the wide out slots. Lee Smith will be more of a blocking TE and will be useful for Musgrave in that role.
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What would be nice, however, is if Oakland had a better OL to make this all work. Donald Penn returns at LT and Gabe Jackson at LG. The focus will be first and foremost on creating better blocking for the run, and the OL has decent depth. It is just mediocre for the most part.
The Raiders have a new DC in Ken Norton Jr. Norton Jr. was the Seattle Seahawks LB coach and he will try to implement the things that worked in Seattle, trying to capitalize on the speed and intelligence of what he imparted to those teams. If it can resemble anything close to what he built with the Seahawks, this team will turn around rapidly.
But last year the Raiders ranked No. 22 in pass yardage allowed and No. 16 in rushing allowed. The defense is mostly of average talent, but having a good coach for it will make a noticeable difference.
Things will not change rapidly in Oakland, but change is on its way. Having a new DC is a good sign and Carr has all the talent to lead a great NFL offense. It was just time to move away from what was not working at RB, and the Raiders still need a more impressive OL.
Outside of Carr and Murray, this team is short on big time playmakers, and maybe a few players play beyond expectations to get this team to something close to a .500 record. However, that possibility is not high, and accordingly we’re setting the bar pretty low for Oakland this season.
Prediction: 4 wins
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