Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid
2014 Record: 9-7
Postseason: N/A
Odds to win Division: +360
Odds to win Conference: +1800
Odds to win Super Bowl: +4500
Season Wins: Over 8 (-145); Under 8 (+125)
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The Kansas City Chiefs fortuitously won nine games last year despite massive injuries, and with a weak offensive line it is tough to imagine the team scratching more than a .500 season.
The K.C. Chiefs have a lot of talent, but are missing some key components to be able to make a legitimate run at the AFC West title. Do not count it out, but the offensive line is mediocre at best, and that will render the team struggling offensively far more than some might expect. Andy Reid handles the offensive play calling and Doug Pederson will aid him as OC.
Reid typically employs a pass-heavy attack, but the Chiefs ranked No. 28 in the NFL last year in passing yardage and only had a 54 percent completion ratio. The OL was largely to blame for all of this, and RB Jamaal Charles was never able to make the most of his talents and he started to wear down from the lack of protection, the lack of holes, and the sheer beating he took on a regular basis.
QB Alex Smith is hoping that OL really turns up its protection, as last season he found himself scrambling and so often just trying to make the best of plays. Even with the consistent defensive pressure, he was able to keep his INTs down and posted the highest QB rating he had since his first season in KC.
Smith is conservative and smart, but that sometimes means that the Chiefs miss out on some bigger plays that a risk-taker might capitalize on. Adding WR Jeremy Maclin might help make some bigger plays, and Smith certainly has the talent to make the most of Maclin. Again, Maclin and Smith will be as effective as the OL allows them to be.
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RB Jamaal Charles carried 329 times in 2013 while scoring 19 of the team’s 41 TDs, but last year he started to deteriorate more. Charles battled ankle, knee and hammy issues last season and despite all that still finished with 1,324 yards on 246 carries. He was also still good for five yards per rush. He’s now 28, but an “old” 28. Behind Charles is Knile Davis, who is a versatile player and great kick returner, but Davis has yet to assume a major workload.
That likely changes this year, most especially if Charles battles the nagging injuries he did last season. De’Anthony Thomas also factors into the mix, though he is more impactful on special teams.
Maclin should make the WR corp better, and it is hard to be much worse. Dwayne Bowe has been a huge disappointment, lacking versatility and showing few signs of the ability to be a No. 1 option as people assumed he would be. Maclin is also familiar with Reid’s offenses and youngsters Albert Wilson and Chris Conley will both be impactful. The WRs are better, and TE Travis Kelce led the team in receptions and yardage last year. He’s big enough and quick enough to be a major option in any offense and could become one of the league’s best TEs in short time.
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The OL, as mentioned, is what keeps this team from going anywhere. It had massive turnover last season, and it never really reached any point of stability. It allowed 49 sacks and though the interior of the line is new (featuring a Pro Bowler in Ben Grubbs and an experienced Paul Fanaika) it is not really guaranteed to be sufficient by any stretch of the imagination. It may still be the worst OL in the entire league.
Defensively the Chiefs were entirely unable to stop the run last year, ranking No. 28 in the NFL and allowing 127.2 yards per game. The team controlled the pass, but mostly because the run protection was so horrible. KC allowed just 203.2 yards in the air last year, which was the second-best mark in the NFL. The defense is led by NFL sack leader Justin Houston and the Chiefs ranked No. 7 in total defense while ranking second in scoring defense. All the while, it forced few turnovers, ranking tied for last.
The DL and LB groups are both very good, but the secondary is average at best. LB Tamba Hali led the league with 22 sacks in 2014, and Houston made 68 tackles last year covering both backs and TEs. Hali is now 31 and is the key to the defense, though the Chiefs did take Dee Ford in the draft to prepare for his eventual decline.
The LB group has plenty of depth. The team will use a 3-4 scheme and will again be pretty good, so defense likely will not be what holds Kansas City back this year.
Its special teams are also good. Dave Toub is a great special teams coach and all its units are strong, most especially the returns groups. Knile Davis and De’Anthony Thomas are the reasons why, as both are very good return specialists. Thomas averaged 30.6 yards per kickoff return last season. Lefty kicker Dustin Colquitt has a great lefty kick with hang time and a good ability to control direction.
The Chiefs have a lot of great pieces intact, but the OL is just bad, and there’s no other way to cut it. Reid is 20-12 through his first two seasons, but the team has yet to defeat the Broncos nor has it won its division.
This year likely will not be different, and until the Chiefs are able to put some talent in front of Smith, he’s going to continue playing “Safe” football. Maclin was a crucial signing, but he is not going to be enough to turn the Chiefs into contenders. It will have to continue working on building an OL while bolstering the rest of its receiving corp, rendering this team still a couple seasons away.
Smith found Maclin for a TD which helped the team defeat the Seattle Seahawks on Friday night (Aug 21), but this is the preseason and the starters played the entire first half. Maclin was targeted five times, and he’ll likely be featured more heavily still. The offense is so good to be so critically wounded, concluding.
That fact leaves us unafraid to call an ‘under’ here on the ‘8’ wins.
Prediction: 7 wins
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