All betting odds courtesy of Bovada
San Diego State
Odds to win NCAA: 50/1
The San Diego State Aztecs have won eight straight Mountain West titles and won 20 or more games for nine straight seasons. Beyond that, this is an Aztecs team that has made five straight NCAA tournament appearances, including last year which saw SDS lose to Arizona 70-64 in the semifinals.
Last year, the Aztecs were 31-5 and ranked as high as No. 5 during the season. SDS lost just three players from last year’s team and the transfers are going to easily replace their production. The Aztecs also had a big recruiting class, which figures to keep this program atop the MWC again. Winston Shepard averaged 11.6 points, 4.9 rebound and 2.1 assists per game last season as a sophomore.
Skylar Spencer is a dominant shot swatter who blocked 89 shots last season and also averaged 4.3 boards. Dwayne Polee averaged 8.5 points and shot 47 percent from the floor, also 39.1 percent from distance. Polee is a versatile 6’7” who can beat players offf the dribble, hit the three or go right at the rim. He’ll be a difficult matchup for most teams.
Boise State
Odds: Field
Last year the Boise State Broncos were 21-13 on the season, but the record could have been far better if the team had been able to close out close games. The Broncos lost eight games by five points or less, but the Broncos return the best two talents in the conference in Derrick Marks and Anthony Drmic.
Marks will be in his senior season and the 6’3” guard led the team in scoring last season with 14.9 points per game. He was an honorable mention MWC selection, and he’s good at both getting to the line and he started 33 games last season.
Drmic led the team in scoring at 15.9 points per game and shot 44 percent from the floor, including 34 percent from three-point range. He’s battled issues with foul trouble, but if he can cut down on that, this Broncos team could finish second in the conference. It’s hard to imagine any of these teams beating San Diego State.
UNLV
Odds to win NCAA: 150/1
UNLV entered last season with high expectations, and those simply were never met. They finished 20-13 and failed to make the NCAA or NIT tournaments. The Runnin’ Rebels were just 10-8 in conference play and Dave Rice is trying to fix off court issues that have plagued UNLV. The losses of Khem Birch and Roscoe Smith will be addition by subtraction.
UNLV is still a team that is too small. Christian Wood is a notable exception at 6’11” and he is a good shot blocker with nice shooting range on the offensive end. Cody Doolin is going to be counted on heavily to lead this team and he’s going to have to help the influx of freshman adapt to life in the NCAA for UNLV to be a force in the conference.
New Mexico
Odds to win NCAA: 200/1
The New Mexico Lobos finished 27-7 last year with a 15-3 conference record and lost to Stanford in the second round of the NCAA tournament. New Mexico has won 27 games or more in four of the last five seasons, but lost its top scorer and rebounder from last season. The Lobos lost 49.7 points and 19.7 rebounds from its roster with graduating players, and the Lobos will turn to recruits to make up the difference.
Jordan Goodman was one of the top-5 JUCO recruits in the nation and chose NM for his career. J.J. N’Ganga will be a defensive force and get minutes immediately because of it. Senior guard Hugh Greenwood averaged 31.8 minutes per game last season and shot 33 percent from three-point range. DeShawn Delaney is a senior too and started 23 games last season.
Fresno State
Odds: Field
Fresno State went 21-18 last season with a .500 conference record. The Bulldogs haven’t made an NCAA tournament appearance since 2001, and that is unlikely to change this season. Fresno State lost 2-1 in a three-game series for the CBI title, so there was that silver lining in an otherwise mediocre season.
The Bulldogs did win five straight conference games as Tyler Johnson emerged as a major force, averaging 15.9 points per game. He’s gone now, though. Guards Marvelle Harris and Cezar Guerrero are a good duo in the backcourt, and they combined for about 27 points per game last season, while Guerrero racked up 137 assists on the season. Texas transfer Julien Lewis should be a big difference maker and will be in the rotation at the very minimum. Eugene Artison was a top-50 recruit last season and Isaiah Bailey was a top-25 recruit. The Bulldogs will be getting better soon.
