West Virginia Mountaineers
Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen
2011 Record: 10-3 overall, 5-2 Big East
2011 Bowl result: Beat Clemson 70-33 in the Orange Bowl
Odds to Win Big 12 Championship: 5/1
Odds to win 2013 BCS Championship: 45/1
Over Under Regular Season Wins: Over -8  1/2  -120 / under -110
All Odds courtesy of Bovada

Last season, West Virginia had a 10-3 season and won the Big East in their last year in the conference. The season culminated with a 70-33 demolition of Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The losses came to LSU, Syracuse, and Louisville. Aside from a 6 point win over Maryland, 6 of the first 7 games were decided by 21 points or more either way. However, the last 4 games of the regular season were all decided by 3 points or less.

Now the Mountaineers, coached by Dana Holgorsen, move on to the Big 12 along with TCU from the Mountain West. The two schools replace Texas A&M and Missouri who moved on to the SEC. The Mountaineers are #11 in both pre-season polls and should contend for the Big 12 title. Although Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma St, and Kansas St will have something to say about that.

Offense

Though West Virginia might not fit in geographically in the Big 12 (that 1,500 mile trip to Lubbock, Texas for a conference game is going to be fun), the Mountaineers fit in perfectly in the offense first Big 12. Up to seven of the ten teams in the conference run a version of spread offense like West Virginia does. West Virginia was the only team to average more than 75 offensive plays a game in the Big East. Six other Big 12 teams besides the Mountaineers average that many. Last season, West Virginia were sixth in passing nationally averaging 346 yards a game. The Mountaineers were 13th in scoring with almost 38 points a game under offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson.

Senior quarterback Geno Smith could be a Heisman Trophy candidate in Holgorsen’s “Air Raid” offense. Smith completed 65.8% of his passes last year for 4,385 yards, with 31 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He was sacked 26 times, and had 2 rushing touchdowns. In the Orange Bowl he wrecked the Clemson defense for 407 yards, 6 touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown. If something happens to Smith sophomore Paul Millard and freshman Ford Childress are the back-ups.

The running game was almost non-existent last year, averaging just 123 yards per game. Honestly, though when you throw the ball as well as the Mountaineers, a running game isn’t a necessity. The top three running backs return. Sophomore Dustin Garrison had 136 carries, 742 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 24 catches for 201 yards. Senior Shawne Alston had 97 carries, 416 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Sophomore Andrew Buie had 51 carries, 172 yards, and a touchdown. He also had 13 catches for 85 yards. Ryan Clarke and Donovan Miles are both blocking fullbacks and will get few if any carries.

The top 3 receivers return for the Mountaineers. Stedman Bailey had 72 catches, 1,279 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Tavon Austin had 101 catches, 1,186 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He also had 16 carries, 182 rushing yards and an 80 yard touchdown run. Ivan McCartney had 49 catches, 585 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Apart from the running backs, the only other experienced receivers are seniors Ryan Nehlen and J.D. Woods who combined for 12 catches last year. Otherwise, it will be up to a slew of true and redshirt freshmen to provide depth for the unit.

The line should be strong this year, despite losing All-Big East tackle Don Barclay. The Mountaineers return six players with a combined 100 games starting experience. Center Joe Madsen has started for three years. Left guard Josh Jenkins returns after missing all of 2011 with a torn ACL.

Defense

Holgorsen hired former Oklahoma St assistant Joe DeForest to run the Mountaineers’ defense. West Virginia will switch from a 3-3-5 set to a 3-4, but will also use the 4-3 sometimes. The defense gave up 26.8 points a game last year.

The biggest question mark on defense is the line, which must replace tackle Julian Miller and end Bruce Irvin. End Will Clarke is tapped to replace Irvin. Clarke has a lot of potential and could be a rising star. Tyler Anderson will play the other end. The tackles will be Jorge Wright and J.B. Lageman depending on which formation the Mountaineers use. Kyle Rose, Shaq Rowell, and Trevor Demko add depth to the unit.

The linebackers must replace Najee Goode. Jewon Snow will play some middle linebacker and also a hybrid safety, but he had off-season surgery on both shoulders. Snow had 43 tackles  and 1.5 sacks last year. Terance Garvin is recovering from knee surgery. He had 72 tackles, 3.5 sacks,a nd 2 interceptions last year. He will be one of the outside linebackers. Jared Barber and Doug Rigg  will be the other two starters at linebacker.  Wes Tonkery, Troy Gloster, and Isaiah Bruce are also in the rotation.

The secondary was good last year, but depth could be an issue this season. Cornerbacks Pat Miller and Brodrick Jenkins broke up 11 passes and had 4 interceptions combined. Safety Darwin Cook also returns. He had 85 tackles and 2 interceptions. He will long live in Mountaineer lore because of his 99 yard fumble return for a touchdown that changed the course of the Orange Bowl last season. Freshman Karl Joseph will start at the other safety. Travis Bell, Matt Moro, and Terrell Chestnut will also be in the mix.

Special Teams

Senior kicker Tyler Bitancurt made 16 of 22 field goals last year, but had two kicks blocked. He was only 5 of 9 on ki9cks between 30 and 39 yards, so he needs to be a little more consistent.

Corey Smith and Michael Molinari split the punting duties last year. Smith averaged 39.7 yards per punt, and put six inside the 20. Molinari averaged 37.2 yards per punt, with 11 inside the 20.

The punt and kickoff coverage teams were terrible last year. The Mountaineers allowed 23.8 yards per kickoff return & two touchdowns, and 10.6 yards per punt return with a touchdown.

Tavon Austin returns both punts and kicks. He averaged 14.1 yards per punt return and 26.1 yard per kick return with 2 scores. Brodrick Jenkins and Stedman Bailey will also handle some returns.

Schedule

The Mountaineers open at home against Marshall before a game against James Madison in Landover, Maryland. West Virginia then hosts Maryland and Baylor. Then the Mountaineers travel to Texas and Texas Tech. Next up is a pair of home games against Kansas St and TCU. Then Holgorsen and DeForest return to Stillwater to face their old boss Mike Gundy and Oklahoma St. The Oklahoma comes to Morgantown in a game that could decide the Big 12 title. West Virginia closes at Iowa St and at home against Kansas.

Outlook

First of all, even though West Virginia is arguably just as talented if not more so than last year’s conference championship team. However, that was in the Big East, which is easily the weakest of the six BCS conferences. Now they move to the much tougher Big 12. Not only is the quality of play much higher, but there is also much more travel. Iowa St is the closest school to Morgantown, and Ames is still almost 900 miles away.

I think West Virginia’s defense which was decent last year, could regress as they have to face so many more prolific offenses in the Big 12. I think 8 or 9 wins is a realistic season this year for the Mountaineers.

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