Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Head Coach: Gary Patterson
2011 Record: 11-2 overall, 7-0 Mountain West
2011 Bowl Result: Beat Louisiana Tech 31-24 in  Poinsettia Bowl
Odds to Win Big 12 Championship: 9/1
Odds to win 2013 BCS Championship: 75/1
Over Under Regular Season Wins: Under 8 (-125) / over (-105)

TCU, coached by Gary Patterson, has long said they could play with any team in the country on any given day. The Horned Frogs did beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago. Now TCU moves from the Mountain West to the Big 12 along with West Virginia from the Big East. And while there were some quality teams in the Mountain West, such as Utah, BYU, and Boise St, TCU will find the depth of the Big 12 to be much more difficult. There are no UNLV’s or New Mexico’s on the Big 12 schedule. Even the worst team in the Big 12, the Kansas Jayhawks, would be a double digit favorite over those two teams.

Last season, TCU played only one team that was ranked in the top 25 polls at the time they played. That was Boise St. (Although, Baylor and BYU were ranked at the end of the season.) TCU ended up going 11-2 with the only losses coming to Baylor and SMU. The highlight of the season was a wild 36-35 win at Boise St that gave the Horned Frogs the Mountain West title on their way out the door. It was the first loss at home for Boise since 2001. The Horned Frogs haven’t lost a conference game since 2008.  TCU beat WAC champion Lousiana Tech 31-24 in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Offense

Last season TCU was 9th nationally in scoring averaging almost 41 points a game. The Frogs averaged just under 440 yards per game including 209 yards on the ground. They must replace co-offensive coordinator Justin Fuente who left to be the head coach at Memphis. Jarrett Anderson will continue to run the offense, but now with Rusty Burns as his co-coordinator.

Junior quarterback Casey Pachall returns, after completing 66.5% of his passes for 2,921 yards, with 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He was sacked 13 times, and had 68 carries for 51 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Pachall torched Boise St for 473 yards with 5 touchdowns and an interception. He threw 4 touchdowns in the 50-48 loss to Baylor to open the season. Pachall failed a drug test in February, and admitted he used marijuana, cocaine, and ecstacy in the last year. He will not face further discipline as he passed subsequent drug tests. Sophomore Matt Brown is the back-up. He threw only 5 passes last year, but  he did have 24 carries for 118 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns.

TCU was supposed to return their top 3 running backs from last year, but second leading rusher Ed Wesley left the team in the off-season. He rushed for 726 yards with 6 touchdowns. The Frogs still have Waymon James and Matthew Tucker back though. James had 121 carries, 875 yards, and 6 touchdowns, plus he also had 10 catches for 113 yards. Tucker had 123 carries, 702 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He also had 8 catches for 77 yards. Aundre Dean had 31 carries last year, but could get some of Wesley’s carries. Star recruit  B.J. Catalan will also be in the mix after rushing for over 2,200 yards and 32 touchdowns as a high school senior. He will also be dangerous catching passes out of the backfield.

The top 3 receivers return for TCU. Josh Boyce had 61 catches, 998 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Skye Dawson caught 45 passes, for 500 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Brandon Carter had 23 catches, 352 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Cam White and David Porter will also get some targets as will true freshmen David Bush and LaDarius Brown. Corey Fuller and Stephen Bryant are the top tight ends, but TCU mainly uses tight ends for blocking. Bryant could be a good threat down the field though.

The offensive line could be a question mark, as they must replace 3 starters and 5 players with a combined 73 game starting experience. All-Mountain West guard Blaize Foltz returns, as does center James Fry. However, the line took a hit when projected starting right tackle James Dunbar was ruled academically ineligible just before training camp opened. It isn’t clear when or if he will be reinstated. Eric Tausch will move from the back-up center to right tackle until Dunbar comes back. The left tackle will be BYU transfer Tayo Fabuluje. John Wooldridge will start at left guard.

Defense

The TCU defense improved a lot from the beginning of last season to end, but it still regressed from a very good unit in 2010. Baylor scored 50 points and racked up 50 points in the season opener, and SMU scored 40 with 461 yards. It wasn’t really a surprise TCU lost both those games. From that point on, no team other than high octane Boise St scored more than 28 points against the Frogs. Still TCU ended up with a top 30 defense allowing only 21.5 points a game, under coordinator Dick Bumpas, who uses a 4-2-5 defense.

The defense returns only 5 starters but lots of returning players have playing experience. The defense took a hit when several players were arrested in a campus wide drug bust in February and kicked off the team. The players include linebacker Tanner Brock, defensive tackle D.J. Yendrey , and cornerback Devin Johnson.

The line will be anchored by end Stansly Maponga. He had 13.5 tackles for loss, with 9 sacks and 5 forced fumbles. Ross Forrest will be the other end, and he had 32 tackles last year. David Johnson and Chuck Hunter will be the starting tackles. Jon Lewis, Ray Burns, Cliff Murphy, and Jon Koontz will also be in the rotation for the line.

The linebackers must not only replace Brock but also Tank Carder. Brock missed all of last season with an injury anyway, but Carder will be difficult to replace as he was the emotional leader of the TCU defense. Strongside linebacker Kenny Cain does return though. He led the team in tackles with 72. Deryk Gildon takes over from Carder in the middle. He had 21 tackles in limited action as a freshman. Sophomores Danny Heiss and Joel Hasley will also be in the mix at linebacker.

Even before Johnson got kicked off the team, the secondary was going to undergo a lot of personnel changes. They had lost 3 of their players to graduation. Then corner Travaras battle-Smith left the team for personal reasons. Depth could be an issue, which isn’t a good thing when you coming into the Big 12 with so many terrific passing offenses. Junior cornerback Jason Verrett had 58 tackles last year along with an interception. Kevin White will start at the other corner, after he recorded 2.5 tackles for loss. Sam Carter, Jonathan Anderson, and Elisha Olabode will start at the safeties. Chris Hackett, Quincy Aldridge, James Bailey, Travoskey Garrett, and Keivon Garrett will also get playing time in the secondary. Gamble is a JUCO transfer but the rest of the reserves are redshirt freshmen.

Special Teams

Sophomore kicker Ryan DeNucci replaces  Ross Evans. Evans was a 4 year starter and a reliable weapon. He made 14 of 17 field goals last year. DeNucci has a stronger leg than Evans, but we will see how he does.

Senior Cale Patterson takes over at punter from Anson Kelton. The punting game struggled last year even though Kelton averaged over 40 yards per punt. TCU averaged just 35 yards per punt because the coverage team allowed 7.4 yards per return. The kickoff coverage unit wasn’t that great either allowing 21 yards per return.

The kick return unit was second nationally last year. Waymon James averaged 27.8 yards per return with a touchdown. Receiver Skye Dawson will also return kicks and punts. He averaged 4.9 yards per punt return. Brandon Carter averaged 13.7 yards per punt return last year. Freshman running back B.J. Catalan has the speed to b a great returner and might get some looks.

Schedule

The first 7 games are manageable. TCU hosts Grambling St, is at Kansas, hosts Virginia, travels to SMU, hosts Iowa St, goes to Baylor, and hosts Texas Tech. Virginia, SMU, Iowa St, and Baylor went to bowl games last year, but all are in some state of rebuilding this year.

The last 5 games are brutal though. Besides TCU, there are 5 other schools ranked in the pre-season polls. The Horned Frogs play all 5 in a row. Yes, I know you have to play them anyway, but it would have been better to intersperse them with some of the weaker teams in the conference. TCU travels to Oklahoma St and West Virginia before a home game against Kansas St. TCU closes at Texas and hosts Oklahoma.

Outlook

TCU should be fine on offense even with questions on the line. The defense could struggle, especially in the secondary with so many freshmen playing significant roles. Luckily, they get several games to get up to speed before the gauntlet at the end of the season. Even if they win the first 7 games, which isn’t a certainty by any means, I can’t see them winning more than 2 of the final 5 games. I see TCU winning 8 or 9 games. Even if TCU fans would be disappointed if the Horned Frogs don’t compete for the Big 12 title, I think a bowl berth will be considered a success.

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