2012 NCAA Tournament South Region
Tuesday, March 13-Sunday, March 25, 2012
All odds courtesy of Bovada

The South Region of the NCAA tournament contains five schools who have won national titles in their history. Kentucky, Connecticut, Indiana, UNLV, and Duke have all won national titles and all except UNLV have won multiple titles. It also contains 3 of last year’s Final Four teams in the same half of the bracket, Kentucky, UConn, and Virginia Commonwealth.This year’s South Regionals are in Atlanta.

Here is a look at the teams in the region and their odds to win the bracket courtesy of bovada. I will also look at some of the best second round match-ups and teams that could be on upset alert. I will also give my picks for who will come out of the South to advance to the Final Four in New Orleans.

Teams

Kentucky 2/3, Duke 11/2, Baylor 11/2, Wichita St 9/1, Indiana 12/1, UNLV 25/1, UConn 30/1, Notre Dame 40/1, Iowa St 60/1, Xavier 60/1, VCU 100/1, Colorado 150/1, Lehigh 200/1, New Mexico St 200/1, South Dakota St 200/1, Western Kentucky 200/1, Mississippi Valley St 225/1

Best Second Round Matchups

Iowa St and UConn meet in the 8-9 game for the right to play Kentucky in the third round. UConn won the championship last year but struggled down the stretch with a 6-10 record in their last 16 games. Iowa St meanwhile overachieved and won 22 games and finished in 3rd place in the Big 12. It should be a very competitive game.

Wichita St and VCU meet in the 5-12 game. The 27-5 Shockers won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title but were upset in the semifinals of MVC tournament by Illinois St. VCU is coming off a trip to the final four last year, and was on the bubble until they beat Drexel in the CAA Championship game to earn the league’s automatic bid. This should be a fantastic game between two very good mid major programs.

Xavier and Notre Dame will play in the 7-10 game. Notre Dame is 22-11 and finished 3rd in the Big East. Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams in the country for a while but cooled down the stretch going 2-3 in their last 5 games. Xavier is 21-12 and finished third in the Atlantic 10. The Musketeers were ranked in the top 10 at one point before an ugly brawl in early December against rival Cincinnati led to several key players being suspended multiple games. They were never as dominant as they were before the suspensions but Xavier certainly has the talent to make this a great game.

Upset Alert

Though UNLV is having one of their best seasons in years with a 26-8 record, the Runnin’ Rebels struggle to score in the half court offense. Colorado loves to slow down teams, and UNLV could be in trouble. The Buffaloes won the Pac 12 tournament with a 53-51 win over Arizona in the final. Arizona averages almost 70 points a game, and UNLV averages 77.

Bracket Predictions

Despite Kentucky Coach John Calipari complaining about having to play on Thursday, the Wildcats should have little problem with the winner of Western Kentucky and Mississippi Valley St, especially since the game will be in nearby Louisville. Kentucky will play the winner of  Iowa St-UConn in the third round. A Kentucky-UConn game would be a rematch of last year’s national semifinal. Either way, Kentucky should make to the sweet 16.

Wichita St should win a close game against VCU. That could set up WSU against Indiana, if the Hoosiers win against New Mexico St in the second round. Most people would want a rematch of Kentucky and Indiana in the regional semis. The two rivals played a memorable game in December when Indiana won on a buzzer beater. Until Sunday’s SEC Championship game it was the only loss of the season for the Wildcats. However, though Kentucky and Indiana would be a great game, I think Wichita St pulls off the mild upset against Indiana in teh third round.

If UNLV survives Colorado, then the Rebels have a shot at upsetting Baylor in the third round. Duke could be challenged by the winner of Notre Dame-Xavier in the third round, but I think Duke advances to the sweet 16 against the winner of Baylor-UNLV. Duke beat Baylor in the 2010 regional final to go to the Final Four. Duke and UNLV haven’t played since the 1991 Final Four when the Blue Devils upset the undefeated Runnin’ Rebels.

Kentucky and Duke could meet in the regional final in the 20th anniversary of the 1992 East final between the two schools. However, I think Duke will get upset in the sweet 16 by either Baylor or UNLV. Kentucky wins the region and advances to the Final Four for the second straight year.

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