Opening Line: USA -33
Total: 188.5
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
The US has unsurprisingly steamrolled through its competition, and I don’t see this game with Australia being any different.
Will the Aussies pose some problems? Maybe a few. Patrick Mills of the Portland Trailblazers has been outstanding and put up 39 in their final pool play game against Great Britain, but could Mills hold a candle to the US guards? I doubt it. He’s a backup in the NBA, and we’re talking about three all stars in Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Russell Westbrook. So the greatest strength of the Aussies is negated by the US team, as usual.
Beyond Mills, the Australians have a couple of fringe NBA players in former second round draft pick Joel Freeland and former Houston Rocket David Andersen. Both are decent big men, but again, the US has the best rebounder in the league in Kevin Love and the Defensive player of the year in Tyson Chandler. They’re used to covering much better players than backup caliber big men.
With all due respect to a country that did post a winning record in pool play, I just don’t see any way that AUS can keep this close. The US is on a mission and now that pool play is over, they’ll likely be playing Kobe Bryant and the major starters more minutes. Kobe got a lot of rest in pool play, but this is time time when it truly counts. I expect the US to come out and use this as a statement game…and that may be enough to cover the 33 point spread set by Vegas oddsmakers.
There is reason to expect better from the Aussies, though, as they did keep it close with Brazil, losing by only 4 to a team that is much more loaded with NBA level starters. In that game, AUS got 14 from Andersen, 18 from Mills, and an additional 10 from Aleks Maric and 15 from Joe Ingles. Again, it’s a strong enough squad to pose problems for the silver medal contenders, but really they have no chance of keeping this one close with the US team.
Expect Mills to come out firing, and if he gets hot, it may keep the game close initally, but as the game wears on there will be no way he can keep pace with the US guards. Moreover, while AUS has some talented big men, it’s going to be near impossible to slow the penetration of Russell Westbrook and LeBron James; not to mention finding a way to contest the nearly impossible to reach jumpshot of Kevin Durant.
Prediction: US by 41.
