Northwestern Wildcats
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald
2011 Record: 6-7 overall, 3-5 Big Ten Legends
2011 Bowl Result: Lost Meineke Texas Bowl to Texas A&M 33-22
Odds to Win Big Ten Legends Division: 15/1
Odds to Win Big Ten Championship Game: 40/1
All Odds Courtesy of Bovada

You want to talk about a roller coaster season, the 2011 Northwestern Wildcats were certainly an example under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The started off 2-0 including a win at Boston College. The Wildcats then lost 5 games in a row to Army, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, and Penn St. All except Army went to a bowl last year. Northwestern then won games in a row against Indiana, Nebraska, Rice and Minnesota. The 28-25 win at then #10 Nebraska was by far the most impressive victory of the season. The Wildcats won the other three games by double digits, but Indiana, Rice, and Minnesota were a combined 9-27 last year. Northwestern ended the season on a 2 game losing streak to Michigan St and Texas A&M in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. The Wildcats ended up 6-7. Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1949. The Wildcats have gone to four consecutive bowl games for the first time in school history.

While Northwestern won’t be challenging for the Big Ten title (or even the Legends Division for that matter), Wildcat fans will be happy with another bowl berth. The elusive bowl win would be nice too, of course, as they have lost 9 straight since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

Offense

Northwestern had a strong offense last year under coordinator Mick McCall. The Wildcats averaged 254.2 passing yards and 166.6 rushing yards per game, and scored 28.9 points per game. Northwestern was in the top 50 nationally in all categories.

The Wildcats must replace quarterback Dan Persa who threw for over 2,300 yards, with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The versatile Kain Colter takes over as the quarterback. Colter played in every game last season. He is not only the leading returning passer, but rusher and receiver as well. Colter completed 67.1% of his passes (55/82) for 673 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. He was sacked 9 times. Colter also had 135 carries for 654 yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns. Colter also had 43 catches 466 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Sophomore Trevor Siemian could take some snaps as well in order to allow Colter to use his receiving talents, but don’t expect Colter to have anywhere near 43 catches this season. In the spring, he barely played receiver at all, as he concentrated on improving as a quarterback. Siemian was 16 for 26 for 256 yards, with 3 touchdowns and an interception last year.

If Colter does play mostly quarterback, the receiving corps must replace their top 3 receivers from last year in receiver Jeremy Ebert and tight end Drake Dunsmore. Ebert had 75 catches, 1,060 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Dunsmore had 45 catches, 522 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Besides Colter, the leading receiver is Demetrius Fields who had 32 catches, 382 yards, and 3 touchdowns last year. Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones combined for 35 catches last year. Tony Jones had 11 catches as a true freshman but missed all of last year. Cameron Dickerson, Drew Moulton, and Pierre Youngblood-Ary add depth to the unit. The X factor will be USC transfer Kyle Prater, a five star recruit. The Chicago native transferred to Northwestern to be closer to  a sick relative, and was granted immediate eligibility by the NCAA for this season. Evan Watkins, Tim Riley, and Tim Szott will compete to replace Dunsmore at tight end.

The running game must replace Jacob Schmidt and Adonis Smith. Schmidt was the second leading rusher with 471 yards and 6 touchdowns. Smith had 266 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Treyvon Green is the leading returning rusher besides Colter. Green had 97 carries, 362 yards, and 4 touchdowns last year. Mike Trumpy had 35 carries, 182 yards, and a touchdown before tearing his ACL in October of last year. He is expected to be healthy by the start of the season. If he isn’t ready, freshmen Malin Jones will get his carries, but Jones will get some regardless. Venric Mark is more of a return specialist, but he will get some carries as well. However, Colter will still get the majority of the carries in the running game.

The offensive line gave up way too many sacks last year even when the mobile Colter was taking snaps. They do return 4 players with a combined 73 games starting experience though, led by left guard Brian Mulroe and right tackle Patrick Ward. Both Mulroe and Ward have started for the last 2 years. The line must replace 4 year starters tackle Al Netter and guard Ben Burkett.

Defense

Even though the offense scored over 28 points a game, the defense allowed just under 28 points a game. It led to a lot of shootouts last year with scores like 38-35, 41-31, and 59-38. The defense was decent at stopping the run but the secondary gave up way too many big plays against the pass.

Now defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz must replace most of the starters. It might not be that bad though because as I said the unit wasn’t that great last year. Fitzgerald and Hankwitz have recruited a lot of talent in the last couple of seasons, and now is the time for those kids to shine. Oddly, Northwestern has recruited more linebackers than defensive linemen, making many people think they were planning on switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4. However, in the spring Northwestern still ran the 4-3.

The line must replace tackles Jack DiNardo and Niko Mafuli who combined for 9 tackles for loss and 4 sacks last year. The tackles will be led by Senior Brian Arnfelt, Junior Will Hampton and sophomores Chance Carter and Sean McEvilly but they combined for only 17 tackles last year. The ends must replace leading tackler Vince Browne. However,  Tyler Scott, Quentin Williams, Davon Custis, Max Chapman, and Deonte Gibson have a lot of talent and potential.

Senior David Nwabuisi was the only bright spot on an otherwise lackluster linebacking corps. Nwabuisi had 8.5 tackle for loss, three passes broken up, and 2 forced fumbles last year. He returns, but the rest of the unit has some question marks. Sophomores Chi Chi Ariguzo and Collin Ellis look to improve after struggling during their freshmen years. Freshman Ifeadi Odenigbo is a four star recruit. He will be a star, if he can live up to the enormous hype.

The secondary really struggled last year, and now must replace 3 starters. The secondary could be the key to an improved defense because the front seven is expected to improve, especially on the pass rush. Sophomore safety Ibraheim Campbell returns. He had 2 interceptions, 4 passes broken up and 3.5 tackles for loss. Cornerback Daniel Jones had 10 tackles last year.

Special Teams

Junior kicker Jeff Budzien made 6 out of 10 field goals last year. Three of his misses were from beyond 40 yards, but he did make a 47 yard kick in the Iowa game.

Junior punter Brandon Williams also returns after averaging 40.8 yards per punt. He had 9 touchbacks last year and only placed 14 inside the 20. However, the Northwestern punt coverage was terrible so the Wildcats averaged 35 yards net per punt, and even gave up a touchdown.

Venric Mark returns both kicks and punts for the Wildcats. He averaged 15.9 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards per kickoff return. he didn’t have any touchdowns, but he is still one of the best returners in college football.

Schedule

Northwestern opens at Syracuse before four straight home games against Vanderbilt, Boston College, South Dakota, and Indiana. The Wildcats should be at least 4-1 and maybe even 5-0 after those games. Northwestern always loses at least one game they shouldn’t though every season. Last season, it was a clunker against Army. Next up is a two game road trip to Penn St and Minnesota. Northwestern then hosts Nebraska and Iowa, before a brutal two game road trip to Michigan and Michigan St. The Wildcats close at home against rival Illinois.

Outlook

On paper, Northwestern has a chance to go 9-3 but the team has too many questions on defense for that to happen. I think 7-5 and another bowl berth is more realistic.

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