Michigan Wolverines
2011 Record: 11-2 overall, 6-2 Big Ten Legends
2011 Bowl Result: Beat Virginia Tech 23-20 (OT) in Sugar Bowl
Head Coach: Brady Hoke
Odds to Win Big Ten Legends and Big Ten: 6/5 Legends, 9/5 Big Ten
Odds to Win 2013 BCS Championship: 30/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: under 9 -160 / over +130
All Odds Courtesy of Bovada

Last season, under first year coach Brady Hoke, Michigan went 11-2 and went to BCS Bowl for the first time in 5 seasons. The Wolverines beat Virginia Tech 23-20 in overtime in that game. The only 2 losses came to Michigan St and Iowa. They also beat Ohio St for the first time in seven seasons. All in all, it was a successful season, even if they didn’t win the Big Ten title.

This season, Michigan is favored to win the Big Ten Legends Division, and is the co-favorite to win the Big Ten Championship game with Wisconsin. The Wolverines are #8 in both pre-season polls, so expectations are sky high for Michigan fans. The schedule is difficult though, and the pressure will increase. No one expected 11 wins from Michigan last year, but they certainly do this season.

Offense

Offensive coordinator Al Borges uses a pro-style offense, but he does throw in some West Coast looks from time to time. In 2010, Michigan had the 2nd ranked offense in the country, but then sophomore quarterback Denard Robinson took a beating because he took too many quarterback runs.

When Hoke and Borges took over, they wanted to reduce the number of hits Robinson took. It worked to a degree. In 2010, Robinson had 256 carries, but that number was reduced down to 221 last year. His passing attempts also dropped from 291 to 258, but he was sacked 13 times last year as opposed to 7 in 2010. Robinson was the leading rusher for the Wolverines last year. He had over 3,300 combined rushing and passing yards, and 36 combined touchdowns (20 passing). He did struggle at times in the new offense as he threw 15 interceptions, up from 11 in 2010. That was higher than any quarterback in the Big Ten. Robinson is one of the favorites to win the Heisman trophy. His numbers should improve as he had another off season to learn the system. Robinson has a good work ethic and is a team player, so he will do whatever the coaches require of him.There was a little bit of a drop-off offensively as Michigan dropped from #2 to #12 nationally, but it wasn’t too drastic.

The rushing attack took a hit when running back Fitzgerald Toussaint was suspended indefinitely after a DUI arrest. Toussaint had 187 carries last year for 1,041 yards, and 9 touchdowns, and also caught a touchdown pass. Without Toussaint, the feature back will likely be sophomore Thomas Rawls who only had 13 carries last year. He looked good in the spring though. Vincent Smith is more of a third down back. He had 50 carries,  298 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Smith also had 11 catches, 149 yards, and 2 touchdown catches.

The Wolverines must replace receivers Junior Hemingway and Kevin Koger who combined for 57 catches, just under 1,000 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Jeremy Gallon returns after he caught 31 passes, 453 yards, and 3 touchdowns. In 2010, Roy Roundtree caught 72 passes for 935 yards, and 7 touchdowns. In 2011 his production dropped to just 19 catches, 355 yards, and just 2 touchdowns. He did average 18.7 yards per catch though. Michigan needs Roundtree to approach his production from his sophomore year. Roundtree had arthroscopic knee surgery in early August and is out 2-4 weeks. He could miss the season opener against Alabama. Jerald Robinson and Drew Dileo are also in the mix for wide receiver. Robinson played on special teams last year and didn’t have a catch. Dileo had 9 catches for 121 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Brandon Moore, Ricardo Miller, and Devin Funchess will compete for the starting tight end job.

The line must replace center David Molk and right tackle Mark Huyge. Senior Ricky Barnum will take over at center for Molk. Michael Schofield moves from left guard to right tackle to replace Huyge. Junior left tackle Taylor Lewan was second team All-Big Ten last year. Elliott Mealer moves to left guard to replace Schofield. The other guard is Patrick Omameh, who has started every game since 2010. Freshman Kyle Kalis, sophomore Kristian Mateus, and junior Erik Gunderson add depth to a very strong unit.

Defense

Last season, under defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, Michigan’s defense improved immensely from 2010. Michigan was #6 in scoring defense, 16th in the red zone, and 25th on standard downs. That unit was the main reason Michigan improved to 11 wins last year, as the defense was atrocious in 2010. The defense returns 7 starters from last year.

The defensive line will be led by end Craig Roh and tackle Will Campbell, both seniors. Roh had 8 tackles for loss, including 4 sacks. He is better against the pass than stopping the run. Campbell hasn’t done much in his three years at Michigan, but reportedly had a good spring. Jibreel Black, Quinton Washington, and Ondre Pipkins will likely compete for the other tackle spot. The line is the biggest question on defense. If Campbell finally lives up to his potential, this could be another top 25 defense.

The linebackers will be led by Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan, Brandin Hawthorne, and Jake Ryan. Ryan had 11 tackles for loss last year, and was a freshman sensation. Two more freshmen, Joe Bolden and Royce Jenkins-Stone are also very talented. The linebackers should be among the best in the Big Ten if not the country.

The secondary will be led by Corners Blake Countess and J.T. Floyd. Countess is a star in the making and has the talent to be a future first round NFL draft pick. Floyd had 2 interceptions last year, and the two combined for 14 pass break-ups. The starting safeties also return in Thomas Gordon, and Jordan Kovacs. Marvin Robinson, Raymon Taylor, and freshmen Jarrod Wilson and Terry Richardson add depth to a very strong unit.

Special Teams

Junior kicker Brendan Gibbons made 13 of 17 field goals last year. He returns, but his leg strength is average at best.

The punting unit was terrible last year. Junior Will Hagerup averaged 36 yards per punt, and was benched in favor of Matt Wile. Wile did slightly better averaging 41.7 yards, and he landed 4 inside the 20. Both return and will compete for the punter job this fall.

The kickoff return unit ranked just over 18 yards per return and was 117th out of 120 teams. Justice Hayes will return kicks and Jeremy Gallon will return punts, after he averaged over ten yards a return.

Schedule

Michigan opens in Arlington, Texas against Alabama, in a battle of top 10 teams. It might be a tall order without Tossaint and Roundtree, to beat Alabama. The Wolverines return home after that to face Air Force and Massachusetts. Michigan then travels to Notre Dame and Purdue. Michigan then comes home for games against Illinois and Michigan St. Then it’s back on the road to face Nebraska and Minnesota. The Wolverines host Northwestern and Iowa, before closing the season at Ohio St.

Outlook

The loss of Toussaint hurts, certainly, but we don’t know how long he will be suspended. He might miss one or two games, or the whole season. The defense should be good if not great again. The schedule is tough with road/neutral site games against Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio St. Ohio St is in ineligible for postseason play, and their bowl game will be playing spoiler for Michigan’s conference title hopes.   The home game against Michigan St is not a cake walk either. I say Michigan goes 8-4 this season. They still qualify for a Bowl, but it will be something like the Capital One Bowl or the Outback Bowl.

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