Florida St Seminoles
2011 Record: 9-4 overall, 5-3 ACC Atlantic
2011 Bowl Result: Beat Notre Dame 18-14 in Champs Sports Bowl
Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher
Odds to win ACC and ACC Atlantic Division: 1/1 ACC, 1/2 Atlantic
Odds to win 2013 BCS Championship: 15/2
Over Under Regular Season Wins: Over 9/12 -210 / Under +170
All Odds courtesy of Bovada

Last season, Florida St was a preseason top 5 team, and were the choice of many experts to win the ACC and perhaps even play in the BCS Championship game. However, an early 3 game losing streak ended both of those dreams. Florida St ended the regular season 8-4 with all four losses coming to bowl teams (Oklahoma, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Virginia) by a total of 21 points. The Seminoles had to settle for beating Notre Dame 18-14 in the Champs Sports Bowl to finish 9-4.

Expectations are still high for Florida St as they are #7 in the pre-season coaches poll. The Seminoles, coached by Jimbo Fisher, are expected to compete with Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Miami-FL for the ACC title.

Offense

Last season quarterback E.J. Manuel took over at quarterback for Christian Ponder who in now with the Minnesota Vikings of the NFL. Seminole fans expected Manuel to be an elite quarterback and perhaps even compete for the Heisman Trophy.

It didn’t quite work out that way, as Manuel suffered a shoulder injury in the Oklahoma game early in the season. He missed a couple of games. In October the Florida St offense was among the best in the country, but then Manuel aggravated the shoulder, and the offense went in the tank. In the four games from October 15th to November 3rd, Florida St averaged 38.5 points a game and won each game by at least 25 points. (Granted they were playing, Duke, Maryland, NC State, and Boston College in that stretch.  Manuel was injured again in the Miami game and the offense never scored more than 23 points for the rest of the season. They still went 3-1 down the stretch, mainly due to the dominant defense.  The only loss in that stretch was a 14-13 loss to  when Florida St missed a field goal at the end of the game that would have won the game.

Manuel ended completing 65.5% of his passes for 2,666 yards with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also had 4 rushing touchdowns, but he was sacked 33 times. That can’t happen again if Florida St wants to be more successful. If Manuel struggles or gets injured against Sophomore Clint Trickett will step in. Trickett threw for 675 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions last year. Trickett started against Clemson, and threw for 336 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception in a 35-30 Seminole loss.

Offensive coordinator James Coley has run a spread offense in the past, but Fisher prefers a pro style offense. so that is what the Seminoles will run.

Last season, 5 FSU receivers had at least 26 catches but none had more than 38. Four of those five return except for Burt Reed. Rashad Greene had 38 catches, 596 yards, and 7 touchdowns, despite missing four games with an Achilles’ injury. He had a concussion during spring practice, but is expected to be ready by the start of the season. Rodney Smith had 36 catches, 561 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Kenny Shaw had 34 receptions, 418 yards and 4 touchdowns. Christian Green had 26 catches for 450 yards, but no touchdowns. Junior Willie Haulstead also returns after missing all of last season with a concussion. In 2010, he had 38 catches, 587 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Tight end Nick O’Leary is also a dangerous weapon.

Sophomore Davonta Freeman led the Seminoles in rushing last year with 120 carries, 579 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He missed the spring practices with a back injury. Chris Thompson rushed for 846 yards in 2010, but was limited to just 29 carries last year with a back injury of his own. Both should split most of the carries if healthy, but sophomore James Wilder, Jr. and freshman Mario Penders could also step in and get some carries. All were blue chip recruits out of high school, so depth won’t be an issue.

The main reason Manuel got sacked so many times and the running game struggled was because of injuries to the offensive line. An incredible 10 players started at least one game on the offensive line, including 3 true freshman. The good news is the playing time will help the line this year, as those kids now make up the line. If the line can get back to the level they were at in 2010, the Florida St should be better on offense in all phases.

Defense

Last season, Florida St’s defense was number 6 in the country under defensive coordinator Mark Stoops (younger brother of Oklahoma head coach Bob). The Seminoles were 9th against the run and 12th against the pass. However, the Seminoles had two glaring weaknesses on defense. FSU was 88th in red zone defense and 55th in the fourth quarter. When they had huge fourth quarter leads, neither mattered that much, but when the offense began to struggle in November it became more of an issue.

The defense should again be a top unit nationally, as they have tons of depth and NFL ready talent. All 11 linemen who made at least one tackle last year return. In fact, two players moved to offense just to get playing time. The ends will be led by Brandon Jenkins, Bjoern Werner, and Cornelius Carradine. The trio combined for 31 tackles for loss, and 20.5 sacks. The tackles are also some of the best in the country led by Timmy Jernigan, Everett Dawkins, and Anthony McCloud.

The linebackers lose Nigel Bradham who was drafted by the Buffalo Bills, and Jeff Luc who transferred. However, they still return Vince Williams, Nick Moody, Christian Jones, and Telvin Smith. It won’t be as deep as the line, but the linebackers still have plenty of talent.

The secondary must replace cornerback Mike Harris and strong safety Terrance Parks. Junior safeties Lamarcus Joyner and Terrance Brooks do return along with corner Xavier Rhodes. talented corner and punt returner Greg Reid was dismissed from the team this week for violating team rules. The secondary will be deep like the line and linebackers, with a lot of talented freshmen and sophomores who are waiting their turn.

Special Teams

Senior kicker Dustin Hopkins made 22 of 27 field goals last year including a 53 yarder. He is one of the best kickers in the country, and is also good at kickoffs.

True freshman Cason Beatty will take over as punter from All-ACC Shawn Powell who averaged 47 yards a punt last year.

The return unit will be led by Karlos Williams and Lamarcus Joyner on kickoffs. Joyner averaged 30 yards per return last year. Reid was supposed to be the punt returner, but that will likely fall to Rashad Greene. Reid had a chance to break Deion Sanders’ school record for punt return yardage before his dismissal.

Schedule

Florida st opens with 4 straight home games against Murray St, Savannah St, Wake Forest, and Clemson. They then play five of their last eight on the road. Florida St travels to Big East favorite South Florida and North Carolina St before hosting Boston College. The Seminoles then travel to arch-rival Miami before hosting Duke. They close at Virginia Tech and Maryland before ending the season at home against Florida.

Outlook

If the line can improve, the offense should be much better. The loss of Reid will hurt, but the defense has enough depth to overcome his absence. The schedule isn’t too bad, but road games at South Florida, Miami, and Virginia Tech, and a home game against Clemson will test the Seminoles. I see 10 or 11 wins and berth in the ACC Championship game, a likely rematch against Virginia Tech.

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