West Virginia Mountaineers
2010 Record: 9-4
2010 Bowl Result: Lost Champs Sports Bowl 23-7 to North Carolina St
2010 Against the Spread: 7-5-1
2010 over/under: 5-8
Returning Starters: 13 (9 offense, 4 defense)

Throughout August we are releasing pre-season previews for all the major college teams.  Our College Football Handicappers are doing plenty of research to make sure we release  winners every week during the upcoming season.

Last season, West Virginia tied for the Big East title with Pitt and UConn. UConn won the tiebreaker and the Big East’s BCS berth. West Virginia was beaten badly by NC State 23-7 in the Champs Sports Bowl. It was announced in December that coach Bill Stewart would coach the team one more year before handing the reins over to new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen who was hired away from the same position at Oklahoma St. Last season OSU had one of the top ranked offenses in the country averaging over 500 yards a game.

However, in June Stewart resigned after allegations surfaced that he was trying to get the local media to dig up dirt on Holgorsen. So Holgorsen takes over the program a year earlier than expected. He inherits a program picked to win the Big East loaded with 15 returning starters.

Here is a look at West Virginia’s offense, defense, special teams, and schedule.

Offense

Last season the offense wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t exactly great either. The Mountaineers averaged 375.1 yards a game including 213 passing yards and 162.1 rushing yards a game. The Moutaineers scored 25.2 points a game. The Mountaineers were ranked near the middle in all those categories.

Expect the offense to be better this season with Holgorsen’s up-tempo spread offense. Junior QB Geno Smith returns and once he learns the new offense he should be great. Smith completed 64.8%  of his passes last season for 2,763 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He had the second most carries last year with 106 but only averaged 2 yards a run for 217 yards and no touchdowns. Smith was all Big East second team last year. If you are wondering why he kept running only to get stuffed most of the time, it was because he was running for his life most of the time. Gaining 2 yards a carry was better than getting sacked. If Smith goes down to an injury, the Mountaineers could be in trouble as they only have two true freshmen on the roster as backups including Paul Millard and Brian Athey.

West Virginia must replace the program’s all-time all-purpose yards leader running back Noel Devine. Junior Ryan Clarke does return though he missed a large chunk of the spring with injury. He had 80 carries, 291 yards, and 8 touchdowns last season. Unfortunately, his skill set doesn’t fit into the new offensive scheme, so expect his carries to drop this year.  Junior Shawne Alston had 56 carries and 248 yards last year with no touchdowns. Both are over 220 pounds, and will wear down defenses. If the Mountaineers want to go speed and quickness rather than brute force, a pair of talented underclassmen will fit the bill nicely. True freshman Vernard Roberts impressed coaches so much during spring practice that he might be the number one running back on the depth chart. Sophomore Trey Johnson has explosive breakaway speed and will leave many defenders in the dust. All four will see significant carries this season. Junior Matt Lindamood is the fullback and strictly a blocker.

Last year the Mountaineers spread the ball around with 7 players catching at least one touchdown and 6 with at least 18 receptions. Besides Devine, and wideout Jock Sanders 4 of the top 5 receivers return, but must adjust to new roles in the offense. Junior Tavon Austin is the slot receiver. He is a multipurpose weapon who had 58 catches for 787 yards, and 8 touchdown catches. He even had 15 rushing carries and a touchdown and contributed on special teams as well. Tyler Urban will be the fourth wide receiver but at 6-5, 251 pounds he could play tight end as well. The outside receiver position will be filled by sophomore Stedman Bailey who had 24 catches 317 yards, and 4 touchdowns last year. Junior J.D. Woods will back him up, and he had a8 catches and a touchdown. Senior Bradley Starks will be the other outside receiver. He had 19 catches, 317 yards, and 4 touchdowns last year. Junior Ryan Nehlen and sophomore Ivan McCartney will see some time at flanker as well.

The line returns 4 starters but only ranked 71th in sacks allowed and the rushing game averaged less than 4 yards a carry. Now the line must adjust to more snaps in the new offense so conditioning could be an issue. The line is led by senior LT Don Barclay, who had off-season shoulder surgery but is expected to be fine by the time the season starts.

Defense

West Virginia’s defense was one of the best in the country last season ranking in or near the top ten in all major categories. The Mountaineers gave up only 263.5 total yards a game, including 174.6 passing yards and 88.9 rushing yards a game. They allowed only 13.5 points a game last season. They return 4 starters from that unit but 5 of the 7 players they lost were First team All Big east

The defense will be led by DE Bruce Irwin, DT Julian Miller, LB Najee Goode, CB Keith Tandy, and SS Terence Garvin. The defense will still be strong but a regression is expected after losing so much talent.

Special Teams

Junior Tyler Bitancurt returns as the kicker but he struggled in his sophomore year. He was 10 for 17 with 4 blocked kicks, and went 2 for 7 from over 40 yards. As a freshman he was All Big East first team, so he has the talent.

Junior Cory Smith transferred from Alabama a couple of years ago. He will handle kickoffs and punts.

Sophomore Brodrick Jenkins and Keith Tandy will handle punt returns, while Austin & Starks will return kickoffs.

Schedule

West Virginia opens with 5 of the 6 first games at home. They open the season at home against in-state rival Marshall, host Norfolk St, before traveling to Maryland. Then the Mountaineers have a three game home stand against LSU, Bowling Green and UConn. WVU then travels to Syracuse and Rutgers before hosting Louisville. They close the season with games at Cincinnati, home for the Backyard Brawl against  rival Pitt, and finish up at South Florida. They should win the Big East with 10 or 11 wins.

Betting Trends

The Mountaineers were 7-5-1 against the spread last year including 4-3-1 at home and 3-2 on the road. The over/under was 5-8 including 4-4 at home and 1-4 on the road.

Game to Play West Virginia

October 8, West Virginia hosts UConn. Last season, the Huskies beat West Virginia 16-13 in overtime, a game that cost the Moutaineers a berth in a BCS game, and the outright Big East title. The Huskies are rebuilding and I look for West Virginia to gain revenge in Morgantown.

Game to bet against West Virginia

Last season, West Virginia traveled to the bayou to take on LSU. The Tigers won a close 20-14 decision. The rematch is September 24th in Morgantown. Despite that LSU still has too much for West Virginia and the Tigers should win.

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