Penn State Nittany Lions
2010 record: 7-6 overall, 4-4 conference
2010 Bowl Game: 37-24 loss to Florida in Outback Bowl
2010 ATS: 5-8
2010 O/U: 8-5
Returning starters: 12 total (6 on offense, 6 on defense)
Over the month of August, our team of writers will be previewing the top teams heading into an exciting 2011 campaign. The college football handicappers at Maddux Sports are also preparing and have season-long packages readily available for clients. Let’s take a look at how Joe Paterno’s 46th year is shaping up in University Park.
Offense
The quarterback situation will play itself out in camp before playing host to Indiana State in the home opener before a real test against Alabama on Sept. 10. Sophomore Rob Bolden and junior Matt McGloin both have experience under center.
McGloin would seem to have the upper hand after Bolden asked Paterno for a release from his scholarship following the disappointing Outback Bowl. Fans are eager to have the situation resolved, but it’s nice to have such a problem heading into the 2011 season.
Replacing the program’s all-time leader in rushing yards is going to be the toughest situation that the team faces, as Evan Royster leaves a big hole. Sophomore Silas Redd seems to be the answer, averaging 5.7 yards a carry as Royster’s backup last year.
Derek Moye leads the receiving core and will be starting for a third straight year. He will likely build upon the 53 catches and 885 yards that he posted a year ago, as the unit will be searching for others to fill a void of losing two veteran targets.
The offensive line played average at best last year and not much more is expected from the unit heading into a new season, but the strength is likely to be found in returning tackles Quinn Barham and Chima Okoli.
Defense
Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley has a another coach on the field with junior Michael Mauti, who will move from the strong-side position to middle linebacker. He is an emotional player and will need to create havoc for opposing offenses, as the Nittany Lions tallied just 17 sacks last year.
Mauti will be playing behind an experienced defensive line in the team’s 4-3 scheme, as the tackles are expected to consume opposing offensive linemen, allowing the linebacking unit to stuff the run game.
The secondary will be prepared to face any passing attack that comes its way, just a year removed from finishing second in the Big Ten in allowing just 181.2 yards per game. Penn State will have four regulars from 2010 returning to try and improve even more on those numbers.
Special Teams
Sophomore Anthony Fera is penciled in to handle both the kicking and punting duties, but incoming freshman Sam Ficken may take over the field goal responsibilities before the season opener.
Fera averaged 41.4 yards per punt last year, while also handling kickoffs with a stronger than average leg.
Both return games should be in good hands, as Chaz Powell showed explosiveness and had a 100-yard touchdown return in 2010. The punt return game will be split up between Justin Brown and Devon Smith.
Against the Spread
Gaining a betting advantage when playing Penn State is hard to judge, as the team has gone 24-24-1 ATS over the past four years. Playing on the road as an underdog over that time has been a losing proposition, posting a 1-5 ATS mark.
Bet On
The Nittany Lions have done quite well against the number when playing Purdue, tallying a 7-2 ATS mark in the last nine meetings, including covers in four of the last five when playing host.
Fade Away
Don’t get too confident in playing Penn State in its revenge game against Alabama, as the 24-3 loss in Tuscaloosa was not as close as the score indicates. The squad is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. Watch the college football lines page closely for this Sept. 10 contest.
