Let’s take a look at the teams in the West Region of the 2011 NCAA Tournament. Duke is a pretty heavy favorite as the #1 seed. Though Duke’s path isn’t as difficult as Ohio St’s, there are some teams that will challenge the Blue Devils. Some Duke fans are upset that Duke was shipped out west instead of Pittsburgh as Duke won their conference tournament and Pitt did not. However, Duke didn’t win the ACC regular season title but Pitt won the much tougher Big East title outright. Duke still gets their first two games at nearby Charlotte, before having to travel to Anaheim for the regionals. Here is a brief look at each team in the region and the lower seeds who should be on upset alert. Odd to win the region are courtesy of bodog.com.
1. Duke (5/4) Fresh off a 75-58 beatdown of arch-rival North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, Duke is ready to defend their title. ACC Player of the Year Nolan Smith injured his toe in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament against Maryland. It didn’t affect him much as he dominated both Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the semifinals and championship. Duke gets MEAC Champion Hampton in the first round and then plays the winner of Michigan and Tennessee in the second round. Duke shouldn’t be challenged until at least the sweet 16.
2. San Diego St (7/2) The upstart Aztecs have had the best season in school history with a 32-2 record, with both losses coming to BYU with Brandon Davies. They finally beat BYU in the Mountain West Championship game. The Aztecs are led by forward Kawhi Leonard and point guard D.J. Gay. They rely on their suffocating defense and though not a lot of people have seen them play this year, this is a very good team that can make a run to the elite 8 or maybe even the final 4. They play Northern Colorado in the first round and then will play the winner of Temple and Penn St in the second round. (I refuse to call them the second and third rounds.)
3. Connecticut (9/2) Kemba Walker and UConn had an amazing run in the Big East Tournament last week, winning 5 games in 5 days, including 4 ranked teams, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville in the championship game 69-66. They get #14 seed Bucknell in the first round. UConn might be ripe for the upset. A few years ago Syracuse made a similar run through the Big East tournament, although it was only 4 games in 4 days. Once they got to the tournament they had no legs left and were upset by Vermont in the first round. A similar situation could occur here. If Connecticut wins the first game then they will play the winner of Cincinnati and Misosuri in the second round.
4. Texas (9/2) It was a little surprising that the Longhorns dropped all the way to a 4 seed, despite the fact that they lost 4 of their last 8 games. I thought the Longhorns would be no lower than a 3 seed. and to top it off they have a very difficult first round match-up with Oakland. Oakland is a very good team that can score in bunches. Texas should be very careful with the Grizzlies as Oakland could pull off the upset. The winner of Texas Oakland will play the winner of Arizona-Memphis in the second round.
5. Arizona (20/1) The Wildcats won the Pac-10 regular season title but lost he Championship game in a heartbreaker to Washington in overtime 77-75. Led by sophomore forward Derrick Williams who scores 19.1 points a game, The Wildcats can play with any team in the country. They can challenge Duke in the sweet 16 and are a nice dark horse pick to win the region. They play Memphis in the first round.
6. Cincinnati (22/1) The Bearcats finished 7th in the contentious Big East with an 11-7 record. Cincy is led by Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon who both score just under 12 points a game. If Cincinnati survives a tough first round game with Missouri, a possible second round match-up with Big East foe UConn awaits.
7. Temple (40/1) Temple finished second in the Atlantic 10 a game behind Xavier. They lost to Richmond in the semifinals of the A-10 tournament. The Owls have five players averaging double digit scoring, led by guard Ramon Moore who scores just under 15 points a game. They have a tough opening round game with Penn St but if they survive that they can upset San Diego St and reach the sweet 16.
8. Michigan (80/1) The Wolverines played their way into the tournament by going 8-3 down the stretch. They play Tennessee in the first round, which sounds like they should be playing in the Capital One Bowl rather than a college basketball game. Michigan is led Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. The Wolverines play great defense but don’t score a lot of points. If they beat the Volunteers then they get Duke in the second round so they won’t survive past the first weekend of the tournament.
9. Tennessee (75/1) The Volunteers are very inconsistent. They have wins over tournament teams VCU, Villanova, Pitt, Memphis, and Vanderbilt twice. Tennessee has losses to Oakland, USC, Arkansas, Charleston, UConn, Alabama, and Mississippi St. Like Michigan, they will be fodder for Duke in the second round even if they survive the Wolverines. Nothing like two teams with at least 13 losses playing a game that isn’t in the NIT.
10. Penn St (80/1) The Nittany Lions played their way into the tournament by advancing to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament, despite a 19-14 record. Guard Talor Battle averages 20 points a game. Penn St plays Temple in the first round and can pull off the mild upset against the Owls, but if they do they will struggle with San Diego St’s front court.
11. Missouri (30/1) The Tigers are a very dangerous 11 seed. Though they were only 23-10 overall, they spent most of the season ranked in the top 25. They struggled down the stretch losing 3 of the last 4 but with their pressure defense they create nightmares for every team they face. The Tigers have a great shot of pulling off the the mild upset over Cincinnati. They can even beat UConn and go to the sweet 16.
12. Memphis (80/1) The Tigers slipped into the tournament by winning the Conference USA tournament Saturday. They have won 4 straight games and take on Arizona in the first round. Memphis is led by Will Barton who averages 12 points a game. Memphis has played a very tough schedule with games against Kansas, Georgetown, Tennessee, and Gonzaga. That experience might help them pull off the upset against Arizona.
13. Oakland (80/1) The Grizzlies play in the low profile Summit League, and not a lot of people have seen them play. Oakland is a very good team that can certainly upset Texas and maybe Arizona in the second round. Oakland is is led by Keith Benson and Reggie Hamilton who both score around 18 points a game.
14. Bucknell (200/1) The Patriot League Champs are no stranger to pulling off upsets in the NCAA tournament as they advanced to the sweet 16 a few years ago. The Bison get a tough UConn team in the first round, but might be able to hang around for a while if the Huskies are tired from winning the Big East tournament last week. That is the only chance for the Bison.
15. Northern Colorado (200/1) The 21-10 Bears won the Big Sky Championship, and advanced to their first ever NCAA tournament. They are just happy to be here and should get overpowered by San Diego St in the first round.
16. Hampton (200/1) Well, there is good news and bad news for the Pirates. Yes, you made the NCAA tournament but you get a first round match-up with Duke in the first round. Good luck with that, Hampton, and thanks for coming.
It is easy to go with the chalk and pick Duke to advance to the Final Four. You certainly would be wise to place a bet on them but I like San Diego St to complete their dream season with a trip to Houston for the Final Four. The Aztecs will beat Arizona in the Elite 8.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot as the NCAA tournament gets underway. Don’t miss out on any more winners this season.
