In the rugged Big East, the Cardinals have held their own. Last season, they finished 4th in Big East Scoring, 4th in defense, and third in three point field goal percentage. They averaged 74.9 points per game while giving up only 64.5.
The Cardinals will be led in the frontcourt by Kyle Kuric, who walked on and is the highest returning scorer for Louisville. Last season, he put up 10.8 points per game and 3.9 rebounds per game, and at only 6’4″ 195, he is a bit undersized for a small forward, but he makes up for it in tenacity.
Oddly enough, Kuric’s frontcourt mate Chris Smith is also a walk on player and he put up 9.4 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per contest last season. Both will be seniors now, and realize that much of Louisville’s fate lies in their hands. Chris Smith is NBA guard J.R. Smith’s younger brother, and at 6’2″ he stands a few inches shorter than his brother and seems to be on a mission, much like J.R., to show the world just how good he really is. The difference between he and the Nuggets’ Smith, though, is that he doesn’t have the same skill set as his older brother and will not be an NBA lottery pick.
At PF, there is going to be a big battle for minutes between Jared Swopshire (who missed all of last season with a hernia), Rakeem Buckles, and McDonald’s All American freshman Chane Behanen. Buckles probably offers the most realistic starter, but won’t see the lion’s share of the minutes in terms of the full game, as the trio is likely to split the minutes pretty evenly, even if Behanen is more talented than the other two combined.
It should be interesting to see if Gorgui Dieng improves the same way many other raw African big men have. Last season he was a solid shotblocker, but seemed to be too thin to bang on the interior and consequently he averaged only 4.4 rebounds per game. While he can’t do much more than dunk, he did still put in 61.8% of his attempts, which doesn’t look that impressive when you consider all of them are in fact dunks, layups, or tip ins. He’ll have to make some steps forward for the Cardinals to hold their own against the bigger and rougher teams in the Big East.
5’11” junior guard Peyton Siva is the key to the Cardinals’ attack. He led the team in steals, assists, and free throws made last season and he is a capable scorer who is more than happy not to score. He should be able to dish out 5 to 7 assists per game this year, while putting in any where from 12 to 16. Defensively, he is only average, but his stature can cause problems for larger guards who find it difficult to breach passing lanes or make wayward dribbles against Siva. Mike Marra will be entering his junior season and has been a huge disappointment for Pitino, who considered him to be a great shooter when he came in as a freshman. Last season, Marra hit only 28% from down town and scored only 6.4 points per game in 20 minutes per game. He’s going to have to do much more for the Cardinals this year. Kuric will contribute a lot here at off guard due to Marra’s mediocrity.
For as good as Louisville is, there are plenty of reasons they can’t make it to the Final Four. They don’t have any premier players and their best talents are both freshman (arguably, as they bring in two top 50 recruits). Pitino is starting to feel the heat of the lack of success in March and will probably push these guys about as hard as humanly possible. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be enough for either a Big East title or a Final Four trip.
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