With the due to start in a couple weeks, it seems fitting to take a look at the top MVP candidates. Bookmaker has released the odds used here in this piece and we’ll examine some of the better value picks for the MVP award.

Lebron James (+250)

James has the best odds of any of the MVP candidates, but I don’t really think it is all that appropriate. He’s expected to carry the Heat back to the Finals, and while he has won one MVP award already as a member of the Cavs, the pressure on James to perform at a level higher than most to win the award is there. Merely a “good” season will not win it for LeBron because media voters have come to expect better, and if the Heat don’t win the Eastern Conference, which is far from a shoe-in, then LeBron has little chance of winning this award. While I am hardly counting LeBron out at this point, +250 isn’t much value either.

Kevin Durant (+290)

This is a great pick. Last season I strongly advocated futures betting on the Thunder at 18/1 to win the title. Though they fell short against the eventual champion Mavericks, they showed they have what it takes to win a title — soon. Durant led the league in scoring each of the past two seasons, and with Russell Westbrook emerging as a true superstar in his own right, the sky is the limit for the Thunder. This is a great value even at +290, because Durant is my favorite to win this award.

Derrick Rose (+350)

I don’t like this pick at all. While Steve Nash did win back-to-back MVPs in 04-05 and 05-06, repeating in an award that seems to focus on parity doesn’t seem like a good proposition. And the thing is, Rose could turn in a year even more impressive than last year and still not win the award. Before Nash won it back to back, it hadn’t been done since you-know-who back in the early 90s. It’s not that Rose won’t have an MVP season; it’s just that he is highly unlikely to repeat as MVP…

Kobe Bryant (+500)

This is another pick I don’t like. Bryant’s minutes fell from 38.8 a game in 09-10 to a mere 33.9 last season. Now 32, Bryant is beginning to slow down, and if Mike Brown is any kind of coach at all, he’ll realize it is the right decision to rest Bryant for when it counts. I don’t think Kobe’s minutes will fall below 32, but that really isn’t enough to put up the kind of numbers required to win an award like this. I think the Oddsmakers have tried to put a sucker bet up here in Bryant, knowing the Kobe afficionados will bet vigorously on a player whose MVP days are clearly long passed.

Dwight Howard (+500)

It should be interesting to see what happens to Howard in the upcoming weeks. While Magic GM Otis Smith appears to be in no immediate hurry to deal Howard, the situation directly affects his race for this award. No matter where he goes, he is going to make a huge impact, and has won the Defensive Player of the Year three times already, and he finished 2nd in MVP voting last season, AHEAD of LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Durant, all of whom have better odds at winning the MVP. Even with Howard’s uncertain situation, he’s due to win this award and at +500, you’re getting great bang for your buck.

While there are some other names possibly worth mentioning, I won’t. No one else is any better than +800 (Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade), and I don’t see any of the long shots making great bets. Some value can be found in Blake Griffin at +1600, if you want a highly speculative bet. With the likelihood of Chris Paul ending up in a Clippers uniform, Griffin could be due for even more alley oops and easy looks. It’s a long shot, but it’s the only decent long shot bet that there really is, unless you expect Carmelo Anthony (+1000) to have some kind of breakout season and elevate the Knicks past mediocrity.